【國君地產】龍光地產：進化之路，利潤可期
作者：謝皓宇、白淑媛
來源：小謝看地產
導讀
公司2019年實現權益銷售金額30%增長以及核心溢利40%以上增長，業績將持續高釋放；此外調入恆生綜指大型股，將受益資本配置。
1、維持增持評級，上調目標價至19.0港元。公司業績增長略超預期，預計公司2019年核心淨溢利超100億元。於此同時，一方面公司2019年完成915億元權益銷售額，同比增長30.6%，將繼續保障未來業績釋放；另一方面，公司在深圳先行示範區，大灣區佔據政策、地理位置及產業配置等多項優勢，佈局於大灣區的豐富的土地資源將逐步轉化為利潤釋放。綜上給予公司2020年7.6x PE, 對應19.0港元/每股。
2、公司預期核心溢利較2018年漲幅不低於40%，主要原因為本集團於相關年度收入增長所致。截止2019年上半年，公司總土儲貨值為7520億元，其中粵港澳大灣區土儲為6,111億元、佔比81%。深圳土儲超過1,800億元，並連續兩年成交套數居深圳第一位，目前在深圳發展的地鐵物業項目數量達到13個，先發優勢顯著。此外，公司在惠州和東莞等臨深區域土儲貨值超過1,500億元，也將持續受益於深圳購房需求的溢出效應。
3、公司從恆生綜合指數中型股獲調入大型股，肯定了公司從中型市值公司向大市值公司的進化。2020年2月恆指公司綜合指數調整，加入了22只股票，剔除了26只股票，並對17家上市公司的市值進行重新分類，龍光地產成為唯一一家從中型股調入大型股的上市公司，此舉意味着龍光地產的發展規模、綜合實力及市值等獲得持續提升，而且獲得國際資本市場高度認可。
4、公司成功發行10億元5年期公司債，票面年利率4.8%創三年新低。1月公司發行2020年首期公司債券，發行規模為人民幣10億元，債券為期五年，票面年利率為4.8%，創下公司近三年發債利率最低記錄。本次融資有助於進一步優化公司債務結構，降低融資成本。即使在疫情期間，公司1月的權益合約銷售額約為60.9億元，同比增長40.1%，合約銷售單價約為16,013元/平米。
風險提示：銷售去化大幅下探，房企融資大幅收緊。
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