《大行報告》花旗下調澳門今年賭收預測至跌28% 料將呈「U」型復甦
花旗發表報告表示,澳門公布2月賭收按年大跌88%至31億澳門元(下同),計入上月有15天賭場暫停營業因素後日均賭收2.22億元,錄自2007年8月以來最低水平,主要受到內地暫時禁止旅客來澳所致。該行決定一個月內第三度下調對澳門2020年賭收預測,由原來按年跌12%,下修至按年下跌28%至2,102.3億元。該行料澳門今年首季賭收將按年下跌58%,估計內地疫情於4月底大致受控,此意味4月前澳門賭收不會明顯復甦;並料澳門今年第二季賭收將按年下滑53%,估計至5月起才會逐步復甦;並料澳門今年第三季賭收按年跌幅會收窄至11%,即預期會呈「U」型復甦(對比該行此前料會呈「V」型復甦)。花旗稱,澳門博彩營運商於今年上半年盈利會面臨艱難時刻,按該行據六大博彩營運商之中的五間在早前業績會議所述,料大部分有能力將日均營運費用降低20%。該行初步估算,隨著經營開支下降,澳門整體賭業日均賭收約2.7億元將成為營運商的EBITDA收支平衡點。隨著各大賭場逐漸全面恢復業務,其日均營運費用料趨正常化,營運商的EBITDA收支平衡點料升至約3.4億元。該行對濠賭股長期仍然樂觀,指短期股價調整可提供買入機會,建議投資者留意金沙中國(01928.HK)及銀河娛樂(00027.HK),屬長線首選股。花旗估計澳門3月賭收為65億元(日均賭收2.1億元),按年跌75%;料4月賭收為75億元(日均賭收2.5億元),按年跌68%;估計5月賭收為125億元(日均賭收4.03億元),按年跌52%;料6月賭收為145億元(日均賭收4.83億元),按年跌39%;估計7月賭收為215億元(日均賭收6.94億元),按年跌12%。
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