《即日市评》炒国策「放水」 港股转强 基建内房股起舞
恒指上周累跌1,178点或4.3%後,今日回升。新冠状病毒在韩国、日本、意大利、美国及欧洲多国蔓延,报道指美国累计最少70宗新冠确诊,执笔之时美汇指数跌至97.8650。中国公布2月官方制造业PMI大跌至35.7创历史新低、财新2月中国制造业PMI跌至40.3亦创纪录新低,但市场同时憧憬中国复工率上升及中央将出台刺激经济政策,亚太区股市今日造好,韩国首尔综合指数升0.8%,日经指数升近1%结束五连跌,上证综指涨3.2%收2,970,深证成指升3.7%,内地创业板指数升3.1%,沪深两市成交额共1.03万亿人民币,连续第九日突破万亿元,而下午美股道指期货曾急弹近600点或逾2%。港股今早高开52点後升幅扩大,曾升245点一度高见26,375点,全日升161点或0.6%,收26,291点;国指升182点或1.8%,收10,485点。大市全日成交总额1,254.44亿元。沪、深港通南下交易录得净流入金额分别为23.09亿及22.57亿元人民币。而腾讯(00700.HK)及阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股价各升0.9%及2.3%,小米(01810.HK)涨3%,而舜宇(02382.HK)弹5.1%。【憧国策「放水」 基建股舞高】内地上月制造业PMI跌至创纪录新低,市场憧憬中央未来出台刺激政策,中资基建及原材料股受捧,中国中铁(00390.HK)、中铁建(01186.HK)及中交建设(01800.HK)股价分别抽高4.1%、6.4%及7.2%,中国建筑(03311.HK)升4.3%,而中国铁塔(00788.HK)股价升4.8%;海螺水泥(00914.HK)及中国建材(03323.HK)各抢升5.4%及10.2%,鞍钢(00347.HK)抽升6.2%,中铝(02600.HK)扬3.4%。瑞信发表报告,因应新型肺炎疫情,国家推出多项措施应对短期困难,包括利用公开市场操作(OMO)、中期借贷便利(MLF)等措施注资万亿人民币於金融市场。人行亦计划进一步降低存款准备金及贷款市场报价利率。与此同时,有1.8万亿人民币的地方债务预先分配於支持基建。该行料中国将於未来数月推出新一轮大型的财政及货币刺激政策,预期主力会支持银行借贷,信贷环境会较2016-17年宽松。同时预期政府会在提供财政上限方面维持审慎,地方政府缺乏资金积极扩大开支,而固定资产投资增速将会由2019年的4%,加速至今年的6%。瑞信指,信贷扩张结合刺激政策,可以在波动环境下继续支持股票市场,首选股份包括华泰证券(06886.HK)、永达(03669.HK) 、融创(01918.HK)和中铁。【沽空率回落 内房股抽上】港股今日市宽转强,主板股票的升跌比率为29比15(上日6为比41),上升股份1,102只(升幅近2.9%),恒指成份股今日30只股份上升,下跌股份19只;大市今日录沽空187.66亿元,占可沽空股份1,049.8亿元的17.876%(上日为19.769%)。内房股亦舞高,碧桂园(02007.HK)抢升3.9%,融创中国股价涨5.6%。瑞银发表报告,引述克而瑞2月份百强内房发展商销售数据,指出前三十名内房商2月合约销售额按月下跌38%,按年则跌29%,较该行早前跌50-60%的预期为好,相信主要是由於发展商期内加强促销所致,例如恒大(03333.HK)推出定金买楼等措施,惟对合约销售额的实际影响则尚有待估计。瑞银指出,随着售楼处逐步复工,预计3月份销售将逐步恢复,早前估计新型肺炎疫情对全年销售影响约9%,但以现时2月份数据来看,相信影响可能更少。
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