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穆迪料美将现疫情大流行 衰退机会一半
阿思达克 03-02 14:48
评级机构穆迪(Moody's)旗下穆迪分析首席经济师Mark Zandi接受《CNBC》访问时表示,市场低估新型冠状病毒疫情大流行的破坏性,包括对经济及美国总统特朗普竞选连任而言。他指特朗普看法未能跟上美国疾控及预防中心(CDC),对特朗普连任是显着威胁。Zandi又指,美国经济衰退可能性正在跳升,目前机会最少一半。若按最可能情况,即如CDC的估计出现大流行,美国难以避免衰退。他亦认为,美股经历上周大跌後,仍危险地低估衰退的幅度。他指市场一般预期出现V型反弹,认为美联储放宽货币政策会令情况快速复常,但他怀疑今次不会这样,因美联储没有多大空间,货币政策未能推升经济使其快速地回复前进。Zandi预期疫情大流行机会率为四成,美股估值已绷紧,任何可能性将把股市推至地面,新型冠状病毒对经济是真实的威胁。
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