澳優(1717.HK)：羊奶粉龍頭，業績增長穩健，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價15.82 港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：15.82 港元
核心觀點：
嬰配粉行業進入結構升級階段，高端化、集中化趨勢明顯，銷售渠道向 線上、母嬰店轉型。受出生率下降影響，我國嬰配粉行業增長主要由價 格提升帶動，高端細分品類憑藉獨特配方優勢成為新興賽道。奶粉新政 註冊制實施後，雜牌份額逐步降低，市場集中度提升利好龍頭企業。受 消費習慣轉變影響，電商、母嬰店銷售份額提升。提前佈局高端產品賽 道、抓住渠道轉型紅利為澳優帶來快速增長機遇。
澳優產品競爭力強、優勢明顯，市場結構調整與政策變化利於未來發展。 （1）根據中國社科院數據統計，佳貝艾特羊奶粉進口量 2014-2018 上 半年連續五年位居第一，2018 上半年佔中國羊奶粉進口總量 66.6%，龍 頭地位穩固； （2）根據公司官網披露，澳優在全球黃金奶源佈局工廠最 多（7 家），重點發展上游資源，以高質量進口奶源面向快速發展的高端 市場； （3）根據公司 2019 年中報披露，澳優擁有國內註冊配方 15 個； 在註冊制度之下，市場集中有望繼續提升，澳優市佔率有望繼續提高； （4）前瞻佈局母嬰店渠道，抓住紅利期提升銷量。
預計 2019-2021 年業績分別為 0.53 元/股、0.71 元/股、0.91 元/股。預 計在有機奶和營養品的帶動下，公司有望進一步提高羊奶市場的佔有 率。預計 2019-2020 年 EPS 分別為 0.53、0.71 和 0.91 元/股，當前價 格對應 2019-2021 年 PE 為 21.96、16.35 和 12.78 倍；預計未來三年 公司營業收入增長穩定，參照可比公司估值，考慮公司羊奶粉市場龍頭 地位，我們給予公司 2020 年 20 倍 PE，對應合理價值為 15.82 港元/ 股，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示。原材料價格波動風險；核心產品系列銷售大幅下滑；食品安 全問題。
注：本文除特別説明外，均使用人民幣為貨幣幣種。
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