高盛料美股调整需较长时间 花旗估计美股将跌至熊市边缘
高盛及花旗分别就美股近日下滑发表报告,认为美股沽售潮只属刚刚开始。
高盛指出,美国标普500指数平均调整时间为4个月,但新型冠状病毒的不确定性及美联储委员面对的限制,目前的调整或会维持更长时间。高盛认为,在欠缺更清晰地见到全球经济增长稳定下,目前策略上增加风险为时过早,又指全球经济增长仍然疲弱,疫情冲击及货币与财政宽松空间较小,股市更长期向下风险仍然存在。
花旗报告亦指,疫情爆发及货币政策欠缺清晰度,预期标普500指数将跌至2,730点,即低於200天移动平均线,意味指数仍有12%下跌空间,按2月19日高位计跌幅将接近两成,即步入熊市的跌幅。报告指他们目前仍不愿就风险资产「捞底」,并相信金融状况需进一步收紧以逼使美联信行动,他们正等待当局的政策回应迹象。
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