IGG(00799.HK)：拳頭遊戲下行，靜待新遊接棒，維持“買入”評級，目標價7.2港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.2港元
投資要點
2019年業績前瞻：我們預計公司2019年全年營收為6.83億美元（單位下同），同比下滑8.81%，歸母淨利率20.1%，相比去年降低5.2個百分點，主要原因來自銷售費用（上升2.2pcts）和研發費用（上升4.1pcts）。預計每股收益為87港仙。
兩款拳頭產品均進入下行階段。SLG品類競爭逐漸激烈，《王國紀元》先發優勢受威脅。峯值已過，《王國紀元》進入回落階段。《城堡爭霸》熱度退散，預計19、20年MAU&流水將雙降。
新遊品類逐漸豐富，但增量有限，流水放量還需時間。2019年公司發佈多款新遊，其中SLG類別遊戲佔比明顯降低，IGG在嘗試優化遊戲結構的路上繼續邁進。但發佈新遊不及預期，普遍流水偏低。公司2020年還將推出5-10款新遊，將拓展休閒類，MMORPG、FPS等品類，佈局多元化，蓄力佔領細分領域，目前正處探索過渡階段。
19年為研發投入大年，研發策略轉變。截至19H1研發人員佔公司總員工數半數以上。2019年公司研發策略有所轉變，更加註重研發週期管理，並新增約400名研發人員，40個研發團隊，研發費用預計同比增長35.62%至8625萬美元，研發費用率將達到12.6%，導致淨利潤率下降5個pcts。?集中回購，彰顯投資價值。2019年下半年，公司發生回購48次，總金額達1.59億港元，最低迴購價為4.38港元，最高回購價為8.19港元。
投資建議：核心遊戲進入瓶頸期，且新遊放量還需時間，我們將19/20年的收入由7.34/7.62億下調至6.82/6.71億美元（《王國紀元》收入採用中性預測），歸母淨利潤由1.46/1.68億下調至1.38/1.47億美元，目標價由8.57港幣下調至7.2港元，對應19/20年8.3x/7.8xPE，考慮到公司估值目前為行業最低，並處於歷史較低位，疊加我們對於公司多品類遊戲的拓展的期待，我們繼續維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：全球遊戲市場增速不及預期；老遊生命週期較長；新遊戲推出不及預期。
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