融創中國(01918.HK)：業績高增、銷售穩增、土儲充裕，維持“強推”評級，目標價60.00港元
機構：華創證券
評級：強推
目標價：60.00港元
事件：2月24日，融創中國公佈，2019年，公司歸母淨利潤同比增長超50%。
點評：
19年業績同比超50%，對應歸母淨利潤超248.5億元，高預收望業績高增
公司公佈2019年正面盈利預告，2019年，公司歸母淨利潤同比增長超50%，對應實現歸母淨利潤超248.5億元，符合預期。截至2019H1末，公司預收賬款達2,159.5億元，較18年末+8.3%，可覆蓋18年收入達1.73倍，可結算資源豐富，有望保障公司後續業績釋放的可持續性。
19年銷售5,562億元、同比+21%，一二線佈局，20年銷售有望穩增
2019年，公司全年銷售金額5,562.1億元，同比+20.7%，銷售目標完成率達101%；銷售面積3,828.5萬平米，同比+26.4%；累計銷售均價14,530元/平米，同比-4.5%。本次新冠肺炎疫情對於一二線城市的影響預計相對較小，購房需求更多是延後，而非消失，考慮到公司佈局聚焦於一二線城市及環一線熱點城市，可售貨值充裕，並且近期收購環球世紀及時代環球優質資產包，增加2020年可售貨值彈性，預計2020年銷售有望維持較高增速。
低價收購優質資產包，確權/含未確權未售貨值2,400、6,000億，增厚土儲
19年末，公司收購雲南城投集團持有的環球世紀及時代環球各51%股權，在成都、武漢、長沙、昆明等城市補充優質土儲，合計未售建面約2,390萬平米，對應未售貨值約2,400億元，估算地價僅約1,900元/平米，佔比預估銷售均價僅19%。此外，考慮已達成意向協議但尚未正式獲取的土儲後，合計可售建面約6,304.9萬平米，估算未售建面約5,923.4萬平米，對應未售貨值超6,000億元。本次收購以較低的土地成本補充大量優質的土地儲備，進一步豐富公司土儲，並加大今年可售貨值彈性，確保後續銷售穩步增長，保障較高利潤率表現。
投資建議：業績高增、銷售穩增、土儲充裕，重申“強推”評級
融創中國堅持深耕一二線，以逆週期擴張策略，成功在15-17年逆勢加槓桿擴張，並藉以併購擴張的標籤優勢，打造了厚實優質土儲以及低廉土地成本的強大優勢，利於實現快週轉及高毛利率，預示後續銷售和業績“量質提升”，同時隨業績集中釋放，淨負債率望顯著下降、帶動融資成本下行，形成錦上添花。此外，公司作為行業龍頭之一也有望充分受益“融資、拿地、銷售”集中度三重跳增。我們維持公司2019-21年每股收益預測5.69、7.38、9.57元，目前對應19/20年PE僅6.5/5.0倍，我們繼續看好公司銷售和業績的持續雙雙高增，維持目標價60.00港元，重申“強推”評級。
風險提示：房地產市場銷量超預期下行以及行業資金超預期收緊。
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