東陽光藥(01558.HK)：公司業績盈喜發佈，可威渠道拓展繼續放量，維持“買入”評級
機構：國金證券
評級：買入
業績簡評
昨日，公司發佈2019年報盈喜，不考慮可轉債影響時，公司2019年業績增速超120%。公司業績盈喜，快速增長，源於可威渠道拓展繼續放量。
點評
公司業績盈喜，核心品種可威渠道拓展繼續放量：近日，公司發佈2019年年報盈喜，不考慮可轉債歸母增速超120%，預計歸母利潤絕對額超過20億人民幣（不考慮可轉債影響）。我們認為2019年高增速源自三個方面：（1）核心品種可威獲益於流感因素，預計與流感檢測以及用藥意識提高有關，增速較高；（2）公司持續加強零售藥店渠道推廣，預計目前藥店渠道可威銷售額佔可威總銷售額比例已超10%，另外預計可威（膠囊+顆粒）基層覆蓋醫院數量較大幅度提升；（3）公司銷售人員大幅提升，學術推廣力度加強，目前已超3000人，有望繼續增加。
仿製藥未來受益於帶量採購政策，創新藥逐步申報生產進入收穫期：公司曾從集團研究院收購超30個仿製藥。該批品種均為海外通過ANDA，預計CDE獲批後視同通過一致性評價，有望受益於帶量採購政策，已備案一致性評價的品種預計達15-20個，其中已有7個進入集採目錄，潛在進入集採目錄品種約10個。另，創新藥抗丙肝依米他韋已申報生產，預計明年有望獲批上市，創新藥逐步進入收穫期，三代甘精胰島素有望明年報產。
?在研管線進展順利，研究院新藥梯隊完善：公司在研管線較為豐富，丙肝藥及胰島素品種臨牀進展順利，全基因型三聯抗丙肝DAA藥物康達瑞韋已進入臨牀I期。集團在研品種豐富，其中全新機制和靶點的抗乙肝新藥莫非賽定有望治癒乙肝，目前處於II期臨牀；抗腫瘤藥物寧格替尼和萊洛替尼預計在國內已經進入II期臨牀，SGLT-2榮格列淨進入III期臨牀。
估值與盈利預測
公司業績快速增長，可威受益於流感和新冠肺炎，仿製藥沒有存量銷售有望受益於集採放量，新藥臨牀逐步推進。考慮可轉債財務費用影響，我們給予未來三年EPS分別為4.27/5.60/6.26元，對應PE為8.7/6.6/5.9倍。（20-21年EPS相比上次預測分別上調25%、23%，主要因為可威銷售受到新冠肺炎疫情影響，以及可威本身渠道拓展有望提高基層滲透率。）
風險提示
可威受流感週期性影響，未來業績（應收應付等）存在不確定。丙肝新藥領域在研品種多競爭激烈，銷售存在不確定。可轉債對業績財務費用的影響不確定。
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