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《大行报告》花旗升玖纸(02689.HK)目标价至12元 评级「买入」
阿思达克 02-26 09:42
花旗发表的研究报告,上调了对玖龙纸业(02689.HK)2020至2022财年盈利预测1%至2%,主要考虑到原材料关税豁免等因素将可抵销疫情爆发带来的潜在影响,目标价由10.5元升至12元,评级「买入」。该行指出留意到平均销售单价提升速度快过废纸成本,主要因为废纸供应短缺,加上竞争对手受疫情影响亦要停产。另外公司在河北及东莞增产後,现阶段未有计划增加新的生产线,而未来其资本开支将现下行趋势,但派息则有上行空间。 该行指出大部分企业在2月10日复产,玖纸已将平均销售单价每吨提升共300元人民币(下同),同期废纸成本每吨仅升约150元,反映疫情影响到废纸短缺及物流,玖纸拥70万吨成品库存,而产品价格将受惠提价,相信可满足直至4月底的需求,意味公司库存到5月有机会被用光,但该行相信除非疫情持续,否则公司生产可在4或5月恢复正常,故相关库存仍可带来较好的利润。 花旗指出疫情影响到整个行业的扩张计划,除审批层面,一些小型竞争对手亦面对本地废纸短缺及现金流问题,玖纸将河北及东莞新生产线延迟一个月至4月开始,并无计划在内地增箱板纸产能。该行将2021及2022财年资本开支预测降至40亿元及35亿元,反映公司在内地扩张规模缩窄,虽然上半财年其派息比率维持在20%,但管理层亦承诺2020财年全年派息比率将不少於30%,并预期将逐步增长。
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