科維控股(00586.HK)：危廢垃圾雙輪驅動，政策利好助力成長，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
危廢行業監管趨嚴，政策條件推動危廢產能需求雙增長。生態環境部2019年10月發佈《指導意見》要求到2025年底：（1）建立“源頭嚴防、過程嚴管、後果嚴懲”的危廢監管體系。（2）各省（區、市）危廢處置能力與實際需求基本匹配。（3）危廢非法轉移傾倒得到有效遏制。《意見》額外提出發展水泥窯協同處置作為危廢處置能力的有益補充，雙重利好公司危廢處置業務。公司水泥窯協同處置危廢業務成本優勢顯著，根據公司反路演資料，公司項目儲備充足，簽約進度良好；據此我們預計公司該項業務將加速發展，總危廢/固廢處置產能於2019年-2021年末分別可達到235/375/554萬噸/年，分別對應收入人民幣6.53/14.31/26.34億元，毛利潤人民幣4.57/10.02/18.48億元，同比增速分別為65%/119%/84%，49%/119%/84%。
垃圾焚燒項目簽約進展良好，支撐後續收入穩步上升。根據公司反路演資料與公司官網信息，公司2019年新簽約垃圾焚燒項目數量18個，超出預期。公司充足的簽約項目支撐了後續建造收入與運營收入的持續高速增長。據此我們預計公司2019-2021年末垃圾處置產能將分別達到322/500/880萬噸/年，其中爐排爐垃圾焚燒項目產能187/393/793萬噸/年，對應總收入人民幣32.32/54.28/71.08億元，總毛利人民幣6.88/11.99/17.44億元，同比增速分別為87.5%/67.9%/31.0%，24%/74%/45%。
公司參股公司海螺水泥全年業績向好。公司參股公司海螺水泥作為行業龍頭競爭優勢明顯，盈利領跑行業。根據廣發建材研究小組對海螺水泥的盈利預測，我們認為，通過持有海螺水泥股權,公司2019-2021年將分別獲取59.25/55.62/51.62億元投資收益，同比增長11.4%/-6.1%/-7.2%。
我們預計公司19-21年EPS分別為3.73/3.90/4.17人民幣元/股。依據分部估值法，我們認為公司股權合理總價值為人民幣686.54億元，對應每股合理價值42.17港幣，對應20年PE9.75倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：項目進度不及預期；產能利用水平過低；垃圾焚燒補貼範圍超預期收窄；聯營企業波動風險；匯率變動導致的經營和價值風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
