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申洲國際 ( 02313.HK ) :“分散佈局+核心競爭力“足以應對外環境的不確定性,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 02-25 09:16

機構:國信證券

評級:買入

事項:

2020年2月12日,歐盟委員會決定撤銷部分EBA計劃下給予柬埔寨的關税優惠,並替換為歐盟標準關税(MFN),涉及商品包括一部分服裝和鞋類產品,以及所有旅遊商品和糖,除非歐盟議事會和理事會反對,否則該法案將於2020年8月12日生效;同日,歐盟議會投票正式批准通過了《越南與歐盟自由貿易協定》(EVFTA),該貿易協定將消除雙方之間貿易貨物的幾乎所有關税,協定將在2020年越南完成批准程序後生效,最有可能在2020年夏初生效;2020年2月14日,甬派新聞報道,申洲派出700餘輛大巴,從四川、甘肅、山西、雲南、山東等14個省市迎接員工復工,員工數量有一萬七千餘名,首批已抵達;

2020年2月19日,Adidas表示,自1月25日農曆新年以來,其在華業務同比下降了85%,日本和韓國的業務量也有所下降;同日,PUMA表示,在截至2020年的強勁開局之後,其在中國大陸的業務在2月份受到了“嚴重影響”。一半以上的Puma中國門店暫時關閉,將影響第一季度的銷售和利潤,但仍堅持其2020年全年銷售增長10%的目標指引;

2020年2月20日,商務部表示,新冠肺炎疫情對消費短期影響較大,中期影響平緩,後期逐步恢復。預計3月消費市場有望觸底企穩,二季度消費市場仍將處於恢復期,下半年進一步好轉,受疫情影響的部分補償性消費進一步釋放。

國信觀點:

1)柬越兩地生產基地可充分對衝歐盟貿易風險;

2)疫情延誤復工對業績影響相對輕微;

3)內銷佔比僅3成,訂單超出產能,品牌春季貨品滯銷對申洲影響有限;

4)海外產能即將加速釋放,研發+效率決定廣闊空間;

5)風險提示:疫情持續時間過長,全球消費需求顯著下滑,貿易摩擦加劇;

6)投資建議:把握內在競爭力博弈的確定性,外環境的不確定性顯現申洲加倉良機。

近期歐盟柬埔寨貿易摩擦引發市場擔憂,但我們認為公司柬越兩處生產基地足以對衝風險,長期更將受益於行業劣質產能退出。疫情影響也有限,因申洲海外產能運轉正常,國內復工迅速,短暫1-2個季度的疫情對訂單負面影響甚微。申洲產能即將加速釋放,且面料研發與生產效率在行業內均顯著領先,行業的逆風即是公司繼續擴大份額的契機。我們採取保守假設,國內工廠復工延遲兩週,工資和防護措施增大生產成本,且未來也不會出現消費補償性釋放,則分別下調公司2020年收入和淨利潤預測2%和3.6%,影響相當輕微。我們預計公司19-21年淨利潤增速分別為13.4%/15.7%/25.1%,EPS分別為3.42/3.94/4.96元,當前股價對應19-21年的PE分別為27.0x/23.4x/18.7,並未充分反映公司抗風險能力與核心競爭優勢,並且公司即將進入產能加速釋放期,當前估值吸引。我們維持公司合理估值為2020PE27-28x,對應120-125港元,維持“買入”評級。

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