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中國飛鶴 ( 06186.HK ): 正式納入港股通,積極應對疫情保障正常運營,品牌力和競爭優勢進一步強化,維持“推薦“評級
格隆匯 02-24 16:05

機構:方正證券

評級:推薦

2月21日恆生指數公司公佈調整結果,中國飛鶴被加入恆生指數名單,3月9日起投資者可通過港股通進行投資。

飛鶴是中國嬰幼兒配方奶粉的領導品牌,2019年11月13日公司在港交所上市,根據尼爾森公開數據,2019前三季度飛鶴在線下渠道市佔率13.9%,市場份額超越所有外資品牌。

新冠疫情對行業和公司的影響:嬰幼兒配方奶粉屬於剛性消費品,長期來看需求受疫情的影響有限。本次疫情對乳粉企業短期的挑戰主要體現在供應鏈、銷售兩個方面。供應鏈方面,飛鶴的一線生產、運輸團隊在疫情期間保持正常運轉,在物流受限的情況下,公司敏鋭應對變化,調配運輸車隊保證全國大倉的供貨穩定。此外經銷商年前備貨較為充足,供應可持續到2月末。銷售方面,公司積極動員經銷商合法上崗儘可能保障終端門店貨源,動員門店佩戴口罩送貨上門。

飛鶴捐贈1億資金和1億物資馳援疫區,公司的社會影響力、品牌力進一步強化。飛鶴在1.26日設立1億元戰“疫”專項資金,隨後又在2.16日再次捐贈1億元物資。在本次疫情中展現的社會責任感、執行力獲得大量經銷商、消費者的認可,進一步強化了品牌力美譽度、社會影響力。長期來看,龍頭乳粉企業將在重大行業挑戰中收穫更高的市場份額,2020年盈利預測基本保持不變。預計2019-2021年公司分別實現歸屬母公司淨利潤37.8億元、51.8億元、66.5億元,維持“強烈推薦”評級。

風險提示:生育率下滑,行業需求萎縮,對公司增長帶來影響;行業競爭加劇,價格戰對公司銷量存在潛在影響;電商新渠道加快滲透低線市場,對公司形成一定衝擊;新冠疫情對公司短期供應鏈、銷售產生衝擊。

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