聯想集團 ( 0992.HK ) FY20Q3業績點評：疫情衝擊致短期業績承壓，看好PC主業盈利改善及IDC新業務前景，給予“買入”評級，目標價7.1 港元
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.1 港元
◆FY20Q3營收同比微增，盈利表現超預期
FY20Q3實現營收141.03億美元，同比微增0.5%。毛利率同比上升1.5個百分點至16.1%，由於PC產品結構顯著優化、軟件和服務佔比提升致毛利率超預期改善。綜合PC業務盈利能力提升及經營費用上升影響，除税前溢利同比上升11.4%至3.9億美元，歸母淨利潤為2.58億美元，對應淨利率1.4%。
◆疫情影響PC業務短期下滑，CPU供應緩解、中國換機潮驅動平穩增長
FY20Q3PC和智能設備業務營收同比上升2.9%，IntelCPU缺貨背景下依靠調度上游供應資源仍實現小幅增長。疫情衝擊導致PC業務需求及供給端短期受限帶來FY20Q4營收下滑壓力。後續公司產能爬坡、遞延需求釋放及IntelCPU缺貨情況逐季改善、中國商用機換機潮開啟，有望驅動PC業務有望恢復平穩增長，中國區毛利率提升有助於其盈利能力穩中有升。
◆手機業務對武漢工廠依賴度偏高，導致FY20Q4虧損風險
FY20Q3手機業務營收同比下滑17.3%，受單季個別因素致零部件缺貨影響；期內税前溢利300萬美元，連續5個季度實現盈利。受武漢工廠產能供應限制，FY20Q4收入或顯著下降，規模經濟效益下降導致手機業務虧損風險。
◆IDC步入投資回收期業務競爭力增強，待疫情消退後將實現快速成長
FY20Q3IDC業務營收同比持平，受記憶體價格下滑致ASP下降影響，對衝出貨量同比上升。鑑於下游科技巨頭資本開支回暖、公司補齊主板設計能力短板、推出服務器+存儲方案及中國區低價本土化方案提升自身競爭力，我們預計待疫情影響消退後IDC業務有望實現營收端快速增長、逐步扭虧為盈。
◆估值與評級
疫情衝擊導致FY20Q4業績下滑壓力，下調20財年EPS預測7%至0.058美元；考慮到IntelCPU供應問題逐步改善、中國商用機換機潮開啟有助公司PC主業繼續盈利改善，同時IDC新業務步入投資回收期、補齊技術短板實現業務能力升級及中國區低價本土化方案催生IDC盈利前景更加明朗，上調21-22財年EPS預測1%/14%至0.070/0.088美元。參考港股硬件銷售可比公司20年（對應聯想21財年）7-22倍PE區間，台股美股PC同業20年8-15倍PE區間，考慮到PC主業市場份額擴張及IDC新業務前景向好有助估值提升，給予其21財年13倍PE，上調目標價至7.1港幣，上調至“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：中國商用機換機潮延後；IDC新業務拓展不及預期。
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