《大行報告》摩通料中國市場或呈「W」型復甦 聚焦防守性等四大投資主題
摩根大通發表中資股策略報告表示,內地自爆發新型冠狀病毒疫情,中國資本市場自1月下旬遭到沽售,隨著流動性及市場情緒改善,相關市場於2月收復失地,呈「V」型復甦,但該行看法較審慎,料或更可能呈「W」型復甦。該行指首先內地復工進度慢於預期,第二是刺激政策的預期,市場已聚焦流動性注入、減息、財政支持措施等信號,但該行認為新政策會是多元的支持措施,並非單純刺激需求端的老舊政策。
該行指,內地新型冠狀病毒疫情有放緩情況,各地逐步復工,據該行了解,央企已近80%復工,但中小企復工比例約10%至20%,料總體復工水平約30%至40%,指2月經濟表現會慢於該行預期,該行早前已下調對中國首季GDP增長預測,將今年GDP增長預測降至5.4%(此前預測5.9%)。
摩通表示,目前投資主題有四方面,首先是防守性主題,可受惠疫情發展的醫藥、雜貨零售、網遊電子商務;第二個主題是當疫情受控後的需求復甦,包括保險及內房;第三個主題是可受惠財政支持措施,如周期性板塊如鐵路及原材料;第四個主題是對內銀股持審慎取態,指行業面臨低息環境及全國性風險持續上升。
該行表示旗下中資股模擬組合中,決定上調資訊科技板塊評級至「中性」,新納入先導智能(300450.SZ),同時調低對耐用消費品評級至「中性」,剔出美團點評(03690.HK),同時以貴州茅台(600519.SH)取代蒙牛(02319.HK),以海螺水泥(00914.HK)取代鞍鋼(00347.HK),並調高阿里巴巴(09988.HK)於組合比重,降低國壽(02628.HK)在組合中比重。
摩通稱,建議增持板塊包括醫療、保險、日常消費品、工業,該行的中資股首選股包括中國平安(02318.HK)、在美上市的阿里巴巴(BABA)、石藥(01093.HK)及高鑫零售(06808.HK)。
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