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法巴下調中國今年經濟增長預測至4.5% 薦中國互聯網、電訊及教育板塊
阿思達克 02-21 13:28
法巴亞太區策略及股票研究部主管Manishi Raychaudhuri發表報告指,指新冠病毒持續擴散,特別是中國,以及世界其他地區。現時評論何時停止散播屬言之過早。股市在亞洲及環球多個市場出乎意外地具韌性,特別是爆發點中國在岸市場。該行認為,政策支持預期發揮作用。重磅財政及貨幣政策已落地,但該行現時未見市場波動近尾聲跡象。 該行經濟師XD Chen下調中國今年經濟增長預測1.2個百分點,至4.5%。即使新冠病毒看似致命率低於沙士,中國政府亦採強力措施阻隔疫情,該行料全球及地區增長將受到的損害較沙士時更深。中國經濟遠較當時為大,全球供應鏈連繫更深,出境旅客量亦更多。 該行全球經濟師亦下調今年全球經濟增長預測,由3%下調至2.6%,受累中國、日本、及亞洲重要經濟體如南韓及泰國等。 法巴經濟師指出,在亞洲經濟體中,貿易及旅遊衰退,泰國、新加坡、馬來西亞及南韓將最受打擊,而印度及印尼所受程度則最小。南韓、日本、泰國、香港及台灣將最受供應鏈干擾所影響。新興市場投資情緒轉弱將影響錄經常帳赤字國家,即印度及印尼。 該行稱,有些板塊如健康護理、電訊及科技已完成收復失地;與旅遊及娛樂相關板塊則低迷。該行稱,市場預期在疫情受控後,中國消費及供應鏈將快速復甦,但旅業不然。 法巴表示,有些板塊從次疫情中受惠,如中國互聯網板塊。該行料中國電訊及教育板塊、印度科技、媒體和電訊(TMT)及個別必需消費品將相對安全。一旦疫情受控,中國工廠完全復工,相信中國非必需消費品、個別商品、南韓及台灣科技股將跑贏大市。 法巴-現時可投資較安全板塊及股票名單: 騰訊(00700.HK)、阿里(09988.HK)、百度、京東、中移動(00941.HK)、聯通(00762.HK)、中教控股(00839.HK)、印度科技服務商Infosys、印度科技解決方案服務商HCL Tech、印度電訊商Bharti Airtel、印度消費品商Marico 法巴-疫情退潮後可投資板塊及股票名單: 洋河酒廠(002304.SZ)、安踏(02020.HK)、華晨(01114.HK)、美的(000333.SZ)、金沙中國(01928.HK)、美高梅中國(02282.HK)、中海油(00883.HK)、南韓三星電子、南韓SK海力士、台積電、鴻海科技、大立光電
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