《大行报告》野村升万洲(00288.HK)目标价至11.4元 料上季业绩强劲
野村发表报告预测万洲(00288.HK)受美国及中国新鲜猪肉业务所带动,去年第四季营业利润增幅将较第三季加快,达到按年升64%,预期上季的强劲业绩或成为下一个催化剂。
野村指,预计生猪与新鲜猪肉价差因素推动,美国猪肉业务将由第三季录得亏损转向正面发展;考虑到库存低成本及增加美国猪肉进口,中国业务料在去年第四季度亦保持强劲表示。
该行对万洲2020财年美国业务继续感到乐观,并预计受惠於全球特别是中国猪肉需求巨大,生猪生产及鲜猪肉业务将保持强劲表现;万洲管理层亦预期今年美国至中国出口量将将进一步创新高。至於中国生猪价格,该行估计今年将稳企高位,由於2019财年基数较高,以及屠宰量低、冷冻猪肉库存成本的上升,2020财年中国新鲜猪肉市场或面临压力,但料部分将被美国进口量增加所抵消。
野村认为,由於需求强劲且生产恢复较快,疫情对万洲未造成太大影响,将2019-21财年盈利预测上调2-7%,以反映美国业务有改善,并目标价提高至11.4元,重申「买入」评级。
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