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《大行報告》美銀證券料本港住宅樓價上半年跌一成 降地產股目標價
阿思達克 02-20 14:29
美銀證券發表的研究報告指,香港現正經歷完美風暴,除應付去年的示威活動外,現時亦面對新型冠狀病毒疫情爆發,較傾向選擇地產股多於收租股,認為住宅需求相對更具韌性。假如疫情能快速受控,估計零售收租股亦可受惠於本地消息增加,但該行不認為香港寫字樓市道可提供上行驚喜。 美銀證券將行業2020-2022年每股盈利預測削2-6%,以反映市場展望較弱,並將其目標價下調約3%,而相關估算是基於疫情將在2-3個月內受控而定。該行指出行業自疫情爆發以來走勢已落後於恆指,目標較資產淨值折讓50%(較歷史平均低1.5個標準差),股息率約為4.5%。發展商首選新鴻基地產(00016.HK)及長實集團(01113.HK),而收租股中則首選恆隆地產(00101.HK)。 該行估計今年上半年本港住宅樓價跌約10%(之前預測跌5%),而銷量則將顯著向下(2003年沙士期間,2月至6月的銷量按年大跌三成)。由於供應短缺及私樓買家購買力強勁,估計不會出現恐慌性沽貨的情況,而近期推出的新盤反應亦不錯,但新盤延遲推出或會拖累發展商完成今年銷售目標的進度,特別是財年於6月完結的地產商。 該行假設收租股將為租戶提供30-50%的基本租金優惠,為期兩個月,估計將拖累零售租金收入減少約5-8%,再加上之前已估計租金會錄10-15%的跌幅。該行估計競爭環境在下半年將相對輕鬆,一來疫情受控帶來復甦,二來亦沒有示威帶來的影響,本地消費將較旅客更快復甦,因為旅客仍需要時間重拾旅遊的安全感,而中國亦未必於疫情受控後立即重新審批個人遊簽證。 而在寫字樓方面,基於香港陷入更深的衰退,該行估計中環寫字樓租金跌10-15%,非核心區寫字樓租金將跌5-15%。除中小企需求弱外,跨國企業亦會傾向在香港以外地方擴張。(el/u)~ 阿思達克財經新聞 網址: www.aastocks.com
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