《大行报告》美银证券料本港住宅楼价上半年跌一成 降地产股目标价
美银证券发表的研究报告指,香港现正经历完美风暴,除应付去年的示威活动外,现时亦面对新型冠状病毒疫情爆发,较倾向选择地产股多於收租股,认为住宅需求相对更具韧性。假如疫情能快速受控,估计零售收租股亦可受惠於本地消息增加,但该行不认为香港写字楼市道可提供上行惊喜。
美银证券将行业2020-2022年每股盈利预测削2-6%,以反映市场展望较弱,并将其目标价下调约3%,而相关估算是基於疫情将在2-3个月内受控而定。该行指出行业自疫情爆发以来走势已落後於恒指,目标较资产净值折让50%(较历史平均低1.5个标准差),股息率约为4.5%。发展商首选新鸿基地产(00016.HK)及长实集团(01113.HK),而收租股中则首选恒隆地产(00101.HK)。
该行估计今年上半年本港住宅楼价跌约10%(之前预测跌5%),而销量则将显着向下(2003年沙士期间,2月至6月的销量按年大跌三成)。由於供应短缺及私楼买家购买力强劲,估计不会出现恐慌性沽货的情况,而近期推出的新盘反应亦不错,但新盘延迟推出或会拖累发展商完成今年销售目标的进度,特别是财年於6月完结的地产商。
该行假设收租股将为租户提供30-50%的基本租金优惠,为期两个月,估计将拖累零售租金收入减少约5-8%,再加上之前已估计租金会录10-15%的跌幅。该行估计竞争环境在下半年将相对轻松,一来疫情受控带来复苏,二来亦没有示威带来的影响,本地消费将较旅客更快复苏,因为旅客仍需要时间重拾旅游的安全感,而中国亦未必於疫情受控後立即重新审批个人游签证。
而在写字楼方面,基於香港陷入更深的衰退,该行估计中环写字楼租金跌10-15%,非核心区写字楼租金将跌5-15%。除中小企需求弱外,跨国企业亦会倾向在香港以外地方扩张。(el/u)~
阿思达克财经新闻
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