郭家耀: 地緣政局降溫港股料守28,000 阿里、美團及小米憧憬染藍
正榮金融業務部副總裁郭家耀稱,美股周三(8日)反彈,美國總統特朗普表示無意對伊朗開戰,消除市場對地緣政局氣緊張氣氛的憂慮,三大指數均錄得升幅收市,納指更再創出歷史新高。美元走勢向好,避險資金流出,美國十年期債息回升至1.87厘水平,油價及金價由高位大幅回吐。港股預託證券大致向好,預料大市早段跟隨外圍高開。內地股市走勢偏軟,市場關注外圍局勢發展,滬綜指借勢由高位回吐,收市下跌1.2%,失守3,100點水平,滬深兩市成交額為7,792億元人民幣,繼續保持活躍。
港股表現回軟,大市早段一度跌穿28,000點水平,其後跌幅逐步收窄,28,000點關口失而復得,成交額保持理想。地緣政局風險降溫,有利大市表現,預料指數可繼續穩守28,000點水平,後市仍有望上試28,800點阻力。
另恆生指數公司將於今季就同股不同權及第二上市公司納入恆指諮詢市場,預計5月份季檢時會有結果。若恆指公司同意將同股不同權及第二上市公司,符合納入恆指、國指資格,阿里(09988.HK)、美團(03690.HK)及小米(01810.HK),有望於今年陸續晉身為恆指成份股。恆指公司表示,第二上市公司市值計算方法,是計算在港註冊的股份。中央結算持倉紀錄顯示,阿里存放股份總數逾47.5億股,佔已發行股份約22.1%,市值約1萬億元。恆指公司亦要求上市公司24個月平均市值及12個月平均成交符合規定,才有機會獲納入恆指。
不過,通過快速納入規定,若檢討時上市公司市值達港股首五位,上市滿三個月即可染藍,排名6至15位,即可於上市後六個月納入,排名16至20位,則可於上市後十二個月納入。以此推算,阿里、美團及小米今年將會陸續符合要求,有望成為藍籌。屆時,恆指成份股組合將出現大幅變化,新經濟股佔比增加,有助提升指數的增長動力,不過隨之而來的是指數整體波幅亦會加大。對港交所(00388.HK)而言,調整恆指成份組合,提升指數的認受性,指數相關的現貨及期貨產品交投更為活躍,成為其中一個主要受惠者。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,沒持有上述股份)~
阿思達克財經新聞
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