一文综合券商於恒生(00011.HK)公布业绩後最新观点及目标价
阿思达克 02-19 11:28
恒生银行(00011.HK)今早股价偏淡，该行昨日(18日)中午收市後公布去年业绩，纯利按年升2.6%至248.4亿元，低於本网早前综合3间券商预测下限的249.71亿元。每股盈利12.77元。派第四次中期息每股4元，2019年每股派息合共8.2元，高於本网早前综合5间券商预测的中位数8.1元，2018年同期为每股7.5元。全年除税前溢利按年升1.3%至288.13亿元，低於本网早前综合6间券商预测下限的292.36亿元。
期内总营业收入按年升14.3%，当中净利息收入按年增7%至322.55亿元，低於本网综合6间券商预测的中位数323.23亿元。净利息收益率改善两个基点至2.2%；净服务费收入减少9%，截至去年底该行普通股权一级资本比率为16.9%，按年增0.3个百分点。恒生银行副董事长兼行政总裁郑慧敏称，正面对新冠肺炎挑战，疫情严重影响本港经济活动，若有关影响长时间持续，将对整个银行业产生不利影响。
【业绩逊预期 前景遇挑战】
摩根士丹利指，恒生去年下半年每股盈利5.8元，较该行预测低2%，核心拨备前溢利按年升3%，高於该行预测3%，但拨备有所增加。该行料恒生每股盈利在今明两年受压，受资产增长放缓及净息差下降，若经济放缓持续，资产质素亦可成为另一负面因素。该行指，纵使恒生股价相对长期来说看来吸引，但核心资本回报率在未来两年将面临极大压力，股价对此尚未作出反映。该行给予恒生「减持」评级，目标价140元。
高盛指恒生收入、净息差及费用收入较预期差，信贷成本及经营开支表现则优於预期，抵销部分前述指标影响，交易收入亦胜预期。该行下调对恒生今年至2022年每股盈利预测3%至5%，以配合下调净息差预测，但上调今明两年每股派息预测2%至4%，并预期每股每年派息8.2元的情况可在未来两年维持。该行维持对恒生的「买入」评级，但将目标价由209元降至202元。
本网最新综合7间券商对其投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
高盛│买入│209元->202元
花旗│买入│179元
美银证券│跑输大市│165.05元
瑞银│中性│157元
摩根大通│减持│142元
海通国际│沽售│145.75元->141.3元
摩根士丹利│减持│140元
--------------------------
券商│观点
高盛│去年业绩逊预期，下调盈测及目标价
花旗│去年下半年税前溢利因减值增加逊预期，每股派息胜预期
美银证券│去年业绩符预期，今年宏观环境挑战仍存，缺正面催化剂
瑞银│盈利稍逊预期，派息超预期
摩根大通│全年业绩因信贷成本稍逊预期
海通国际│预期今年净息差压力及信贷成本上升情况持续
摩根士丹利│去年业绩稳定，未来两年面临更难处境
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