郭家耀: 港股成交保持活跃 内地车市复苏视乎疫情
正荣金融业务部副总裁郭家耀称,美股周一(17日)假期休市,外围股市表现平稳,港股夜期录得轻微升幅,预料大市早段变动不大。美元走势持续强劲,市场憧憬油组增加减产规模,油价表现向上。内地股市走势强劲,人行下调中期借贷便利息率,放水信号明显,沪综指高开高走,收市上升2.3%,沪深两市成交额增加至9,372亿元人民币。
港股表现向好,人行放水有利中港股市气氛,指数一度突破28,000点关口,其後在高位窄幅争持,成交保持活跃。外围走势持续强劲,大市气氛良好,预料指数有望进一步挑战28,500点阻力,下方支持在27,500点附近。
另乘联会公布今年1月份全国乘用车市场零售约169.9万台,同比下降21.5%,环比亦下降20.8%。当月新能源乘用车批发销量4.5万台,同比下降51.3%,环比下降67%。其中插电混动销量1万台,同比下降38%。纯电动的批发销量3.5万台,同比下降52%。该会表示1月份零售受到春节因素影响最大,春节前有效销售时间仅有20天,理论上带来的零售同比损失近30%左右,经销商的订单结转能缓解一部分年初压力。
但由於突如其来的新冠病毒疫情影响,春节期间的经销商零售基本停止,1月的零售增速低於预期。乘联会指出,2月是生产经营的恢复期,目前的恢复速度较慢,大部分企业推迟上班和出行,导致2月上旬零售起步也是可以几乎忽略。市场原本预计2月零售可录正增长,目前看要下滑30%以上。
另一方面,中国汽车工业协会认为,肺炎疫情对汽车行业影响主要包括,一是购车需求和消费能力短期内明显下降;二是企业生产进度受阻,导致出口困难增加;三是中小企业资金量断裂隐患加大,企业应对标准法规的难度大幅上升。内地车市复苏步伐要视乎疫情受控情况,预料今年销量目标有下调压力。
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