郭家耀: 港股成交保持活躍 內地車市復甦視乎疫情
正榮金融業務部副總裁郭家耀稱,美股周一(17日)假期休市,外圍股市表現平穩,港股夜期錄得輕微升幅,預料大市早段變動不大。美元走勢持續強勁,市場憧憬油組增加減產規模,油價表現向上。內地股市走勢強勁,人行下調中期借貸便利息率,放水信號明顯,滬綜指高開高走,收市上升2.3%,滬深兩市成交額增加至9,372億元人民幣。
港股表現向好,人行放水有利中港股市氣氛,指數一度突破28,000點關口,其後在高位窄幅爭持,成交保持活躍。外圍走勢持續強勁,大市氣氛良好,預料指數有望進一步挑戰28,500點阻力,下方支持在27,500點附近。
另乘聯會公布今年1月份全國乘用車市場零售約169.9萬台,同比下降21.5%,環比亦下降20.8%。當月新能源乘用車批發銷量4.5萬台,同比下降51.3%,環比下降67%。其中插電混動銷量1萬台,同比下降38%。純電動的批發銷量3.5萬台,同比下降52%。該會表示1月份零售受到春節因素影響最大,春節前有效銷售時間僅有20天,理論上帶來的零售同比損失近30%左右,經銷商的訂單結轉能緩解一部分年初壓力。
但由於突如其來的新冠病毒疫情影響,春節期間的經銷商零售基本停止,1月的零售增速低於預期。乘聯會指出,2月是生產經營的恢復期,目前的恢復速度較慢,大部分企業推遲上班和出行,導致2月上旬零售起步也是可以幾乎忽略。市場原本預計2月零售可錄正增長,目前看要下滑30%以上。
另一方面,中國汽車工業協會認為,肺炎疫情對汽車行業影響主要包括,一是購車需求和消費能力短期內明顯下降;二是企業生產進度受阻,導致出口困難增加;三是中小企業資金量斷裂隱患加大,企業應對標準法規的難度大幅上升。內地車市復甦步伐要視乎疫情受控情況,預料今年銷量目標有下調壓力。
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