中芯國際(0981.HK)：19Q4業績符合預期，20Q1業績逆勢上漲，維持“買入”評級
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
事件：19Q4業績發佈，營收8.39億，環比上升2.8%，同比上升6.6%。若將前期業績去除阿韋扎諾晶圓廠營收，則環比上升4.6%，同比上升13.8%。毛利率為23.8%，環比增長14.4%，同比增長40.0%。20Q1營收預計環比增長0%-2%（即8.39-8.59億美元），毛利率為21%-23%。
點評：19Q4營收符合預期，營收8.39億，環比上升2.8%，同比上升6.6%，晶圓出貨量的增加使營收增長，產能利用率的提高帶動毛利率進一步提升。20Q1指引超出預期，超越了半導體行業一季度的季節性疲軟。隨着14nm產能的進一步擴張和良率的提升，預計給20Q1業績的增長提供強勁動能。
14nm工藝本季度開始出貨，在先進製程上逐步縮小與世界代工巨頭的差距。公司14nm工藝在Q4出貨3000片，營收佔比1.0%，同時中芯國際拿下華為海思半導體14nm訂單，因此預計未來量產後營收將進一步提升，先進製程營收貢獻率會進一步增大，且下一代製程節點(N+1)對世界最先進的7nm技術的追趕正在加速。
晶圓廠產能利用率持續上升。產能方面，受益於下游出貨需求的推動，公司產能於2019Q1開始快速增加，同時產能利用率持續上升，Q4產能利用率高達98.8%，環比提升1.8%，同比提升8.9%，產能利用率飽滿，面臨着供不應求的情形。在資本支出方面，2019年晶圓廠運營資本支出20億元，其中14億元用於晶圓廠產能擴張。為滿足市場客户需求，新一輪資本支出將開啟，預計2020年資本支出31.6億元，其中25億元用於晶圓廠設備的支出，產能擴張將會逐步顯現。
技術進步吸引多元化客户。中國區Q4營收佔比65%，環比增長11%，同比增長21%。上海中芯南方FinFET工廠在19Q414nm產能開始釋放，技術開發轉化為收入來源，第一代FinFET穩健上量，第二代FinFET持續客户導入。經營戰略上，中芯國際將持續拓展成熟工藝，保持在各細分領域前列，尤其是攝像頭晶片、電源管理晶片等需求依然強勁。
中長期受益於“新應用驅動+國產替代+先進製程突破”三重動能積聚。受益於5G催生以AIoT為代表的的新應用從而帶動電子元器件的需求、中美貿易戰推動國產替代步伐加速、先進製程的不斷突破，中芯國際作為大陸代工實力的代表，將得到持續性發展。
投資建議：我們看好5G、AIoT及國產替代等對公司的長期驅動，預計2020-2021年EPS分別為0.22、0.43港幣。預計隨着14/12nm的量產，ROE回升，維持評級為“買入”。
風險提示：中美貿易戰不確定性；公司14nm量產不及預期，先進製程發展不及預期；5G發展不及預期
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