華虹半導體(1347.HK):結構性問題改善遙遙無期,維持“增持”評級
機構:國金證券
評級:增持
目標價:16港元
雙季低於預期,結構性問題改善遙遙無期
華虹公佈四季度營收符合預期,但其中美國(-10%q/q)的150-180納米(-15%q/q)模擬芯片及電源管理(-17%q/q)通訊客户(-25%q/q)的環比衰退似乎是拖累華虹的主要因素。加上管理費用(佔28%的營收)跳升,華虹四季度首次步入營業虧損,四季度EPS為US$0.02,比市場一致預期低35%。又因為公司擔心客户年後復工延遲,華虹預期一季度營收環比衰退18%,同比衰退9%(低於彭博分析師預期環比增長2%,同比增長13%)。公司並預期毛利率大幅下滑到21-23%,低於市場預期的26%。
折舊費用攀升影響毛利率可期:我們擔心的是等到華虹12“全能量產後,即使有政府的補貼,季度折舊攤銷費用將超過5,000萬美元,佔營業成本比例會從過去的19%,拉到未來的25-30%,這樣20-25%的毛利率及10%以下的營業利潤率可能在2020-2021年將成為常態,這是比市場預期的10-15%的營業利潤率差很多。
投資建議
調降獲利,結構性問題改善遙遙無期:雖然我們認為華虹從二季度開始,營收環比及同比增速將逐步改善,以5-10%的ROE而言,1.5x以下P/B估值都還算合理,但我們仍然看到公司幾項影響未來股價結構性的問題,所以我們還是決定調降華虹2020E EPS近23%到US $0.12,及下調2021E EPS近16%到US$0.16,維持目標價在HK$16。

風險提示
12“晶圓代工擴產計劃所拉高的折舊費用可能破壞毛利結構,增長動力的MCU和電力功率半導體下游景氣度的下滑,高毛利分立器件晶圓代工的競爭加速,而與市場預估值的差異是短期所面臨的風險
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