信義玻璃(0868.HK)：行業高景氣，龍頭看信義，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價12.1港元
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
目標價：12.1港元
核心觀點
玻璃行業具備供給剛性的特點，加上對上下游議價能力較弱，歷史上盈利能力呈現一定的週期波動。隨着行業新增產能減少，清潔生產優化競爭格局，龍頭企業競爭優勢得以逐步體現。公司浮法玻璃具備礦山資源、能源成本、規模及環保優勢，建築及汽車玻璃貢獻新的利潤增量，首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
▍供需格局改善，行業景氣向上。我國浮法玻璃產業自1971年起步，經歷了2004-2014年的大規模投產，2015年之後新增產能明顯減少，至2019年行業淨新增產能幾乎為零。未來受制於減量置換政策，新點火生產線減少，2010-2014年投產的生產線陸續進入大規模冷修期，供給受限；需求端，我們預計竣工數據轉暖，2019年下半年或成為行業供需格局改善拐點年，玻璃價格有望維持高位震盪。
▍競爭格局優化+產業鏈延伸，集中度提升大勢所趨。隨着環保趨嚴以及對違建生產線監管力度的增強，行業落後產能存在一定的淘汰空間，小企業生存空間被壓縮，行業競爭格局優化。龍頭企業擁有礦山資源，產業鏈延伸成為趨勢，預計行業集中度將進一步提升。
▍公司具備規模優勢，多元化業務協同發展。公司成立於1988年，通過中國大陸及馬來西亞十大生產基地製造，並面向全球各地超過140個國家銷售。具備自有礦山資源、能源成本、單線生產規模較大以及多區域佈局節省運輸費用帶來的成本優勢，以及研發生產高端產品的技術優勢。建築玻璃及汽車玻璃具備發展空間，增厚了公司利潤。
▍風險因素：房地產銷售明顯下滑，原材料價格大幅上升。
▍投資建議：歷史上公司分紅率較高，近年來維持在50%左右，預計當前股息收益率超過5%，提供安全邊際。公司於2020年1月9日、1月15日總計回購股票621.2萬股，並於1月30日註銷完畢，彰顯信心。預計公司2019-2021年歸屬淨利潤4.45/4.87/5.09億港幣，對應EPS預測1.11/1.21/1.27港元，2020年估值僅8.5倍，給予公司2020年10倍PE，對應目標價12.1港元，首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
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