華虹半導體(1347.HK)：4Q19業績前瞻國產IGBT代工領軍者，收入有望超預期，維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構：方正證券
評級：強烈推薦
※受惠於7廠產能爬坡，預計4Q19收入有望超預期
華虹7廠2019年9月17日正式投產，12月25日年度產出目標達成，2020年1月12日首批功率器件產品交付。產能爬坡進展略超預期。根據我們測算，7廠在4Q19出貨量有望達到8000片，超過原先6000片的預期。公司4Q19收入有望達到2.45億美元，有望超過原先2.42億美元的指引。
※IGBT、超級節需求旺盛，1Q20淡季不淡，收入有望增15.8%
華虹2廠近期受惠於IGBT和超級節的需求旺盛，2020年1月投入再創新，高光刻層數達到48萬，稼動率滿載，1月出貨6.12萬片。根據我們測算，功率半導體需求旺盛、7廠持續擴產，華虹1Q20收入有望達到2.55億美元，YoY+15.8%。
※受疫情影響有限，2020將是開啟增長之年
供給側，由於晶圓代工廠廠房高度自動化運轉，華虹各廠在過年期間正常運轉，設備和原材料政策供應。截至2月9日，二廠新購買的12台設備按時搬入，一廠和三廠生產狀況良好。需求側，雖然短期終端消費需求承壓，但難向上傳導至晶圓代工環節，主要考慮到：1）5G換機需求大勢所趨，終端廠商仍需備貨；2）代工廠與下游芯片設計廠合約期較長，履行中的合約毀約概率較小；同時防疫產品，如紅外測温及其他醫療器械相關芯片需求提振，需求側整體穩定的。隨着7廠擴產，2020年將是公司開啟增長之年，全年收入有望增長23.2%，創上市以來新高。
投資建議：半導體需求拐點向上，我們判斷華虹作為國產特色工藝代工龍頭，受益IGBT需求旺盛。隨着無錫廠擴產，2020年將是華虹的拐點之年。我們預計公司19-21年實現收入9.35/11.52/13.23億美元，每股淨資產為2.24/2.39/2.57美元，對應當前市值的PB為1.51、1.39、1.27倍，維持“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：大陸多個8寸廠開出後行業競爭加劇；技術研發不及預期；中美貿易摩擦對公司業務帶來不可見影響。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
