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復星國際(0656.HK):深度產業運營+投資,健康、快樂、富足生態步入收穫期,首次覆蓋給予“優於大市”評級
格隆匯 02-13 09:48

機構:海通證券

評級:優於大市

投資要點:

復星國際從實業轉型基於保險的產業運營+投資公司。復星在07年開始全球投資,最早提出了“中國動力嫁接全球資源”的理論,在進口擴大與消費升級的大潮下,復星國際正是領航衝浪者。復星持續注重長遠的發展,以“深度產業運營+產業投資”為增長引擎,圍繞全球家庭生活中的健康、快樂、富足領域的需求,致力於智造為大家帶來幸福生活方式的全球生態系統。

中國動力嫁接全球資源,科技賦能提升產業運營效率。復星國際在海外併購和經營方面擁有豐富經驗,復星早在07年提出了全球化發展的戰略,11年來複星已經在全球近20個國家有了投資,業務更是覆蓋了近50多個國家。復星的全球合夥人體系已經運營了多年,復星高度重視全球當地團隊在組織中的作用。同時復星還在搭建更多層次的合夥人體系。復星積極利用科技創新賦能產業運營,通過研究與孵化、投資、進行智能中台建設等方式,提高產業運營效率。

深度運營落腳家庭客户,打造健康、快樂、富足生態。公司聚焦深度產業運營+投資,落腳家庭客户為中心的產業生態,2019H1,家庭客户相關的2C收入達到了558億元,佔比82%。在健康領域,復星擁有製藥、醫療及健康服務、器械診斷三大領域;快樂領域,瞄準中國家庭消費升級需求,“1+N”佈局旅遊及休閒、時尚、體驗式產品及服務,打造家庭消費產業集團;富足生態,佈局保險、金融、投資三大板塊,為健康、快樂生態產業提供強大支撐。

盈利預測與投資建議:我們預計,2019-2021年,公司分別實現收入1319、1491和1679億元,分別同比增長20.6%、13.1%和12.6%;實現歸母淨利潤148、164和178億元,分別同比增長10.5%、10.7%和8.5%,每股EPS分別為1.74、1.92和2.08元,結合同行業可比公司情況,我們給予公司合理價值區間為對應2019年8-9X,對應13.92-15.66元/股,按照1港元=0.9元人民,對應合理價值區間15.47-17.40港元/股,首次覆蓋,給予優於大市評級。

風險提示。市場風險;鋼鐵、石油進入下行週期;利率上行。

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