中國建材(3323.HK)：建材航母，資產重估，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：12.38港元
核心觀點：
中國建材：建材航母，多個領域隱形冠軍。中建材股份是央企中國建材集團最核心的產業平台和旗艦上市公司，目前有“水泥+”、新材料和工程服務三大主營業務。從經營數據來看，公司在多個領域都是行業隱形冠軍，水泥業務已是國內規模最大。聯合重組和混合所有制貫穿公司發展，成為公司壯大的“內在基因”。?中建材股份核心業務具備核心競爭力。“水泥+”業務資源和佈局優勢凸顯；石膏板業務多重優勢構築寬深護城河；玻纖及風電葉片成本優勢明顯、高端市場有粘性；工程服務技術領先，優質品牌築就較高份額。
水泥行業高景氣延續+公司內部整合，公司資產將重估。水泥行業供給側變化使得水泥價格高景氣時間延長、波動率下降。內部整合和資產負債表雙向改善，公司ROE中樞上移將帶來資產重估。
“水泥+”和新材料發力，對標聖戈班，公司發展空間大。水泥板塊公司已基本完成全國熟料和水泥佈局，除了存量優化和內部改善以外，新的增量來自骨料和混凝土等“水泥+”業務。新材料板塊公司已經在石膏板、玻纖、風電葉片領域培育出多家“隱形冠軍”，未來的增量來自全球佈局和打造新的隱形冠軍業務。對標聖戈班，公司發展空間大。
投資建議：首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。我們預計公司2019-2021年EPS分別為1.40/1.82/2.02人民幣/股，按最新收盤價計算對應PE估值分別為5.4/4.2/3.8x，對應PB估值分別為0.8/0.7/0.6x。考慮到公司19年三季度ROE11.9%，較上年同期提升0.6pct，且未來ROE有望進一步提升，參考H股可比公司PB-ROE關係，給予公司2020年1xPB，對應合理價值為12.38港元/股，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情控制進程相關不確定因素；基建和房地產投資增速下行；行業供給格局惡化；公司經營管理風險等。
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