金界控股 (3918.HK )：有危才有機，疫情擾動不影響中長期成長邏輯，維持“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
目標價：16.5港元
2019年業績符合預期。公司公佈2019年度業績，收入增長19.1%到175.5億美元。貴賓和中場兩塊業務在2017年末金界2期投入使用後迅速爬坡增長，2019年增速逐步迴歸，貴賓轉碼收入466億美元，同比增長30.7%，中場博彩淨收入4.8億美元，同比增長30.5%。分部收入構成改變令毛利率上升2.5個百分點到48.2%，提升經營效率的努力亦令2019年行政費用佔銷比下降了1.9個百分點，全年EBITDA利潤率從26.4%上升到30.8%，EBITDA增長31%到67.2億美元，淨利潤增長33%到5.21億美元，派息率從過去60%提高到2019年70%。整體業績表現符合我們預期。
疫情影響尚未明朗構成短期股價衝擊，中長期受惠於東南亞經濟增長大邏輯不變。新冠病毒爆發，短期內可能會影響貴賓和中場顧客到訪娛樂場的意欲。過年期間（年初一到年十五），娛樂場通常比較冷清，公司需要再多觀察一到兩個星期才能評估疫情的負面影響，從中長期角度看，東南亞正享受產業轉移紅利，工業發展蓬勃，對比澳門正面臨國內經濟減速的壓力，金界的成長速度有望高於澳門同行。
金界3期設計方案有調整，但不影響項目進程。金界3期從之前五棟建築設計改為最新方案的3棟，設計更有現代感，樓宇間的連通更具效率，總投資額保持不變，大股東在項目建成後換股的股權方案也沒有改變。目前3期正在試樁，預料仍會如期在2025年落成。
投資建議。考慮各方面因素，我們預測公司2020-2022年收入分別為21.3/25.9/31.3億美元，淨利潤分別為5.4/6.6/7.9億美元，EBITDA8.3/10.1/12.1億美元。我們參照澳門博彩同行目前EV/EVITDA估值，結合金界的成長性，給予金界16.5港元的目標價，對應2020年EV/EBITDA為11倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：新冠疫情加劇風險，東南亞博彩市場競爭加劇風險，金界三期進度慢於預期風險.
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