植耀辉: 大市波动续难免 阿里健康(00241.HK)收成在望?
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，「大市走势如何?」这句说话应该是笔者近来除「疫情几时完」外被人问得最多的问题。由於笔者并非医护人士，对这只新型冠状病毒的认识连一知半解也说不上，所以「几时完」实在说不准，亦不想故乱猜测；但对金融市场之冲击则肯定未完。所以大市表现仍会相当反覆，并会继续受中港疫情左右。
个别板块亦难免受到影响，就以iPhone为例，由於生产和供应链问题，便有消息指可能导致要推迟到3至4月份才会发售新系列，此举将打乱不少电讯公司及零件生产商之部署。而更大问题则在於全球经济方面，由於中国GDP去年占世界比重预期已超过16%，所以「失速」对全球经济影响可大可少。当然，几可肯定待疫情过後内地必然会出猛招刺激经济，只是到时可能又会出现另一个较「四万亿救市」更大之泡沫矣!
市况虽然反覆，但有个别股份走势之强犹如进入无人之境，阿里健康(00241.HK)便是其中之一。严格上笔者过去未有特别品评该公司，应该说过去值得评论的地方并不多，就是打着阿里品牌去发展。不过今次疫情，似乎将其潜在之利好憧憬得到释放。
在2014年，阿里与云锋基金借壳中信21世纪，其後改名为阿里健康。阿里健康定位其实十分明确，就是作为阿里集团在大健康领域的旗舰平台，并主打Double H策略(Health and Happiness，亦即健康与快乐)。经过多年发展及进行并购下，现时阿里健康业务涵盖医药电商及新零售、互联网医疗、消费医疗及智慧医疗等，而最大优势始终是有母企支持。事实上，阿里健康与阿里系其他业务带来一定协同效应：产品运输有菜鸟物流、产品选购平台有淘宝及天猫，收费支付则有支付宝。
最近期的例子就是「防疫精灵」。「防疫精灵」由钉钉(阿里推出之企业版即时通讯软件)、阿里云及阿里健康联合开发，用於进行疫情消息推送与防控。当中包括由阿里健康提供之多项产品功能，包括线上问医等。
在「众志成城」下，阿里健康发展已渐入佳境，去年上半年收入41.17亿元，同比增长近1.2倍，亏损亦大幅收窄至760万元人民币，相信全年亏转盈机会相当高。
不过，股价升幅是否合理又是另一回事，毕竟阿里健康市值已高达1,600亿元，估值并不算十分吸引；但始终受惠协同效应，如疫情持续以及业务继续有可观增长，股价或会续有追捧，只是高追风险不低，建议大家还是谨慎一点会较好。
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