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摩通:香港本地銀行股防禦力料低於SARS時期 首選中銀香港(2388.HK)
格隆匯 02-12 11:15

摩通研究報告指,香港銀行今年至今略跑贏恆指,雖然行業在SARS期間表現出韌性,但相信在目前環境下行業防守性未必如以往,因淨息差和資產質素有下行壓力,所以預料港銀會跑贏市場的機會較少或幅度較低,中銀香港(2388.HK)為行業首選。

該行指,貸款增長於去年表現沒有市場想像般差,但相信今年的增長動力仍然繼續會低於過往趨勢,特別是新型肺炎疫情抵銷了首階段貿易協議簽訂的利好消息;同時,信貸成本未必於去年已見頂,因疫情影響了宏觀經濟展望,短期內銀行推出的援助方案有助於短期內控制信貸成本,但卻使資產質素風險累積。

又指,HIBOR與LIBOR間的息差自聯儲局減息開始轉正,雖然去年第四季因大型新股上市等因素令HIBOR相對高企,但存款息差實際上已收窄,因近日銀行搶存款的行為推升存款成本。港銀將於下週起陸續公佈去年業績,該行相信撥備前盈利或會符預期,但信貸成本會是變數。該行調降東亞(0023.HK)及大新銀行集團(2356.HK)和大新金融(0440.HK)的業績預期,以分別反映內地信貸成本較高,及重慶銀行(1963.HK)股權的減值損失。

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