You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
瑞银:若疫情首季受控料中国今年经济增长5.4% 本月或减息降准
阿思达克 02-11 15:45

瑞银投资研究部首席中国经济学家、亚洲经济研究主管汪涛在电话会议上表示,是次新型冠状病毒肺炎对中国经济的影响料较2003年非典型肺炎时严重,因是次疫情的影响范围更大,多个省市实施封城或封闭管理,而现时内地产业链在全国以至世界的融合程度较当年更高,因此造成的经济及生活影响更大。

她指,虽然疫情未来发展仍有很大不确定性,但假设疫情可在今年首季得到控制,即新增确诊个案大减,预期中国今年首季经济按季增长1.5%,按年增长3.8%,而第二及三季按季增长料恢复至逾10%,今年全年计料经济增长为5.4%,较该行原先估计的6%为低。

她称中国今年经济表现很大程度取决於疫情持续情况,全年增长较预期为差的可能性较大,若首季经济增长更为疲弱甚至出现按季负增长,全年增长或仅得5%甚至更低。

汪涛提到,政府政策应对方面料以尽快控制疫情为先,包括增加医疗卫生支出,另外亦会持续为企业提供流动性,加快批准发债及将发债利率下行等。她预计,内地今年将再降准100点子,最快一次将在本月进行,并会加大降息力度,料今月中期借贷便利(MLF)利率将下调10点,未来或会再降10点子,而贷款市场报价利率(LPR)的降幅或会更大。

她又认为,今年中国经常项目顺差占GDP比例将提升0.5个百分点,有助支持人民币汇率,加上持续的稳汇率措施,料人民币兑美元今年会在7水平波动。另外,由於疫情影响旅游,料今年内地外出旅游人次将下跌30%,到访旅客则跌50%,连带周边旅游国家如新加坡及泰国等亦会受影响。至於香港经济亦料会被波及,该行估计今年首季香港经济收缩6%,全年则收缩1.8%。 ~

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account