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中金:維持中移動(0941.HK)“中性”評級 目標價65港元
格隆匯 02-10 15:22
中金髮表研究報告,預計中國移動(0941.HK) 去年收入按年微增0.2%至7,386億元(人民幣,下同),其中服務收入持平於6,698億元,EBITDA為2,876億元(可比口徑EBITDA按年下降3%至2,673億元),淨利潤按年下降12%至1,036億元,較市場預期低3%,主要由於收入增長停滯而運營費用上升。
該行認為,隨着4G市場接近飽和,去年中國移動新增移動用户數按年減少33.4%至2,520萬户,新增4G用户數按年減少28.2%至4,540萬户。中移動仍面臨增長壓力。考慮到市場競爭加劇進一步衝擊運營商定價,估計中國移動去年移動ARPU按年下降4.9%,寬帶ARPU仍處於低位。同時由於缺乏新的移動應用,數據流量增長也暫時面臨瓶頸。隨着4G市場開始轉衰,預計放緩趨勢將在今年持續。
中金又預計,今年中國移動將新建30萬至35萬個5G基站,資本支出將增長6%至1,760億元。而中國移動使用2.6Ghz頻段進行5G部署,有助於緩解其資本支出壓力。同時,公司計劃優化其投資結構,減少對4G和有線網絡的投入。
該行預計,中國移動在5G部署階段將保持温和的資本支出增長,避免資本支出大幅增加損害現金流和利潤率。該行表示,中國移動計劃今年發展1億個5G用户,認為將主要來自於其現有用户的遷移,預計攜號轉網政策可能會加劇市場競爭,進一步衝擊運營商的5G定價,而中國移動憑藉更好的5G覆蓋有望從中受益。
中金預計,5G部署規模的擴大也將帶來更高的費用,預計資本支出增長將推動折舊成本按年增加7%;而5G網絡的運營和維護(尤其是電費)也將帶來超過100億元的費用,因此預計5G可能會影響中國移動今年的利潤率。考慮到5G帶來的收入貢獻以及成本增加,該行將中國移動2019/2020年收入預測分別上調1.6%及3.8%,但將淨利潤預測分別下調2%及5.3%。同時引入2021年收入和淨利潤預測,預計分別按年增長3.5%和0.7%。中金又維持對集團“ 中性 ”評級和65港元目標價,相當於預測今年市盈率12.1倍。

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