匯豐研究:維持美團點評(3690.HK)“買入”評級 目標價126港元
匯豐研究發表的報告指,北京外賣訂單下跌約20%,以此推算美團點評(3690.HK)
送餐業務首季每張訂單盈利跌50%,由於北京有約87%的餐廳關閉,認為美團的盈利引擎遭到重擊。該行指出餐廳關門、外送訂單增長減慢加上騎手成本增加,意味公司外賣成本上升、到店服務弱勢,加上旅遊需求受影響等短期將拖累公司盈利能力,但受用户留在家中影響,日用及必需品方面需求增長強勁,惟相關業務盈利能力相對弱。
該行指出北京貢獻公司去年首三季訂單的13%,但未必能反映全國的情況,匯豐將公司今年經營溢利預測降35%,而目標價則由138港元降至126港元,維持“
買入
”評級,仍認為公司長期的基本面穩健,而業務多元化亦有助應對困境。
匯豐的市場調查顯示,農曆年間每個騎手所接的外賣訂單較2019年平均下跌20%,而一向表現較好的騎手訂單亦跌40%至70%,反映受成本及補貼增加影響,公司每張訂單盈利大跌一半至每張0.19元人民幣,另外亦受人手短缺及支援商户等負面影響。在到店、酒店及旅遊業務方面,該行指出2003年沙士期間餐飲業均受到影響,而新型冠狀病毒在1月尾才公佈,故料需求到5月仍將較弱,而旅遊業方面該行料弱勢將持續至第二季,而其免費取消政策亦覆蓋至2月底,料參考沙士例子,旅遊業亦將在之後的季度呈弱勢。在新業務方面,該行指出公司非食物訂單有所增加,競爭對手餓了麼1月份在日用必需品方面的訂單按年增9倍,該行估計“
美團買菜
”及“
美團跑腿
”收入亦有上行空間,但由於補貼增加或有機會令虧損擴大。
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