錦欣生殖(1951.HK)：賽道優勢顯著，國際化輔助生殖新星嶄露頭角，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
機構：國金證券
評級：買入
投資邏輯：
輔助生殖需求剛性增速穩定，市場容量廣闊：根據我們測算，目前輔助生殖的行業規模約270-290億左右。我國輔助生殖行業具有以下特點：1）目標客羣容量增速穩定，2020年至2025年CAGR約6.6%；2）目標患者容量大，預計2019-2020年約有1100-1200萬患者數具有輔助生殖技術治療需求；3）輔助生殖技術滲透率低，約為5%-8%，待開發潛在空間大；4）滲透率提升趨勢假設下，預計未來3-5年IVF週期數增速約在12-15%，行業規模增速約在14%-18%左右。
差異化服務成為突破口，民營後起之秀迎發展機遇：我國輔助生殖服務行業呈現出：1）公立主導；2）區域頭部效應突出，全國競爭格局分散；3）地域資源分佈不均的特徵。由於輔助生殖需求剛性，在支付意願與能力有望實現同步上升的趨勢下，民營輔助生殖機構通過模式創新完善多層次醫療服務需求，差異化服務定位有望成為成長路徑突破口。
辦醫模式要素清晰，助力全球化戰略拓展：公司是行業領先的輔助生殖服務提供商，內生加外延的驅動下，主業運營能力良好。公司的商業模式主要採取收購/改制標的以確立區域市場的准入先發優勢，再整合醫療技術與辦醫模式中的關鍵競爭優勢並聯動協同。該成長路徑在四川地區已經得到驗證，成為公司異地複製的典範。2017年開啟外延併購戰略，深圳與美國收購整合效應初顯。未來隨公司逐步新增國內與東南亞等地標的，以轉化國內消費者的國際化醫療需求，向全球化綜合輔助生殖服務平台邁進。盈利預測與投資建議：
我們看好輔助生殖賽道的市場空間與剛性需求。考慮公司辦醫模式要素清晰，已佈局區域形成了較好的競爭格局，在全球化戰略的協同下，我們看好其成長趨勢。我們預計公司2019-2021年歸母淨利潤為4.11億元、5.40億元、6.33億元，對應EPS為0.17元、0.22元、0.26元。根據DCF方法得到公司當前價值為13.82港元/股，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：
收購擴張模式與學科共建管理服務模式存在的風險、商譽減值風險、輔助生殖行業的整體監管、醫患社會問題與醫療事故風險、輔助生殖需求放緩、限售股解禁的流動性風險、管理服務協議風險、醫療人才與核心人員風險、競爭格局加劇的風險等。
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