永利澳門(1128.HK )：4季度中場業務仍然有所增長，給予“持有”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：持有
核心觀點：
4季度受到澳門迴歸慶典活動影響，但是中場業務仍然有所增長：19年4季度公司實現GGR12.4億美元，同比下滑20.3%，主要是受到澳門迴歸20週年相關慶典活動的影響。其中，貴賓GGR為5.46億美元，同比下滑38.7%。而中場GGR為5.99億美元，同比增長6.3%。這主要是因為永利澳門的西翼賭廳於11月中旬完成裝修後重新開業，提升了公司高端中場業務的市佔率。
公司採取有效的成本控制措施，EBITDA利潤率環比提升：4季度公司實現物業EBITDA3.48億美元，同比下滑11.8%。由於公司採取了有效的成本控制措施，4季度經贏率調整的EBITDA利潤率環比有所提升。其中，永利皇宮的運營成本環比有所下降，帶動經贏率調整EBITDA利潤率提升40個基點。永利澳門雖然由於西翼賭場開業導致人員成本有所增加，但是其運營成本仍然環比持平。
疫情對公司20年業績影響測算：為了防止新型冠狀病毒在澳門的傳播風險，澳門的賭場於2月5日零時起關閉15日。據季報電話會議，在賭場關閉期間，公司每日的運營成本約為240-260萬美元，其中約180-190萬美元是人員工資。根據我們的測算，如果公司20年2月份的GGR下滑80%，那麼在目前的成本結構下公司20年EBITDA可能會因此降低12%。
預計19-21年EBITDA分別為101.1/107.9/115.2億港幣：由於澳門賭場暫停營業的期限和內地恢復澳門簽註申請時間存在不確定性，目前我們無法量化本次疫情將對澳門博彩業以及對公司業務的影響的持續時間，因此目前我們尚未對20/21年的盈利預測做出調整。我們維持此前的盈利預測，預計公司19-21年EBITDA分別為101.1/107.9/115.2億港幣公司。我們維持對公司的持有評級，維持合理價值18.7港元。
風險提示：內地疫情擴散的風險；外匯管制收緊的風險；來自亞洲其他國家賭場的競爭加劇的風險；賭牌續期的風險。
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