中國海洋石油(0883.HK)：國內海洋油氣龍頭，成本低、油價彈性大，首次覆蓋給予“優於大市”投資評級
機構：海通證券
評級：優於大市
目標價：13.33-16.00港元
投資要點：
中海油是國內最大的海洋油氣生產企業。（1）開採成本低，2018年盈虧平衡點對應油價39.59美元/桶，低於中石油、中石化。（2）油價彈性大：每萬股油氣總產量101.65萬桶，領先國內主要油氣企業。（3）資產負債率低：2019H1資產負債率40.2%，低於國內外石油龍頭平均50.6%的水平。（4）經營性現金流相對充裕，2017-2018年平均股息率5.4%，高於國內外石油龍頭平均3.5%的水平。
油氣資產全球化佈局。2018年公司並表油氣儲量45.90億桶油當量（原油佔比72%），並表油氣產量124萬桶/天（原油佔比82%），儲量壽命10.1年。其中，海外油氣儲量、產量佔比分別為39%、32%；國內以渤海灣、南海為主，東海為輔，海外分佈在北美洲、亞洲（除中國）、非洲、歐洲、南美洲、大洋洲。
資本支出穩步增長，油氣儲產穩步提升。2019年公司預計實現油氣產量5.03億桶油當量。根據2020年戰略展望，公司計劃2020年資本支出繼續穩步增長至850-950億元，同比增長6%-18%；2020-2022年三年產量目標分別為5.2-5.3億桶油當量、5.55億桶油當量和5.9億桶油當量，三年複合增速5.5%。
堅持成本管控，油氣開採成本持續下降。2014-2018年公司勘探開採成本連續五年下降。我們測算2018年中海油油氣勘探開採盈虧平衡點對應油價39.59美元/桶，成本領先中石油（48.10美元/桶）、中石化（55.09美元/桶）。
佈局非常規油氣資源和風電，堅持綠色發展。2019年，公司收購集團煤層氣企業中聯公司，並參與江蘇300MW海上風電項目，在海洋油氣主業基礎上延伸產業鏈，我們認為有助於提升公司競爭力。
盈利預測與投資評級。我們預計公司2019-2021年EPS分別為1.20、1.26、1.32元，2019年BPS為10.55元，按照2019年EPS及10-12倍的PE，給予合理價值區間12.00-14.40元（按照1港元=0.90元人民幣折算，對應合理價值區間為13.33-16.00港元/股），對應2019年PB1.1-1.4倍，首次覆蓋給予“優於大市”投資評級。
風險提示。原油價格大幅波動；公司油氣增儲上產進度不及預期
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