正榮地產(06158.HK):疫情對銷售有短期衝擊 長期依然樂觀
格隆匯APP獲悉,日前,正榮地產(06158.HK)公告了一月份銷售數據,一月合約銷售額人民幣69.94億元(單位下同),合約銷售面積44.71萬方,較去年同期有所下降,合約銷售均價1.56萬元。
據此前克爾瑞公佈2020年1月百強房企銷售額,10強、50強、100強1月實現銷售額分別為2486億元、4877億元、5771億元,同比增速分別為-11%、-11%、-13%,普遍銷售增速出現下滑。市場分析認為,1月銷售增速下滑主要受春節錯位疊加疫情影響,1月26日晚間,中國房地產業協會就發出號召,全國樓盤暫時停止售樓處的銷售活動,待疫情過後再自行恢復。天風證券、招商證券均認為,此輪停售將持續影響房企的2月銷售。
針對疫情引發的銷售停擺,正榮地產表示,當前所有項目均已啟用線上售樓處及京東看房等線上銷售渠道;並且,啟動搭建的“AI雲店”系統已初步成型,預計將於2月中旬啟用為客户提供銷售相關服務,確保後期因疫情影響區域的銷售線上推廣。目前,集團整體可售資源中來自於湖北省的項目佔比較少。售樓處暫時關停預計對1季度銷售有一定的影響,但公司會根據市場情況調整全年的供貨節奏,整體供貨量不會有變化,公司將密切關注市場走勢,後期根據實際情況適時進行策略調整。
投資拿地方面,公司按照“1+6+X”全國化佈局,目前土儲集中於長三角和海西區域。正榮在湖北省進入武漢和襄陽兩個城市,其中武漢5個項目,襄陽2個項目,貨值佔比較低。公司一直堅持穩健投資策略,在疫情明朗前會適度放緩投資節奏,未來將動態根據市場變化,適時擇優投資。
正榮地產同時表示,公司在手現金充裕,上半年無重大資本支出及償債壓力,即使發生極端情況,即一季度無銷售回款,並支付全部到期的工程款,公司仍可保持充裕的流動性。
據東吳證券測算,根據過往10年數據,一季度銷售占房企全年比例約18%,銷售回款佔全年比例約21%。考慮到本次疫情不僅對房企現金流入產生影響,同時也對現金流出(建安、拿地)產生影響,因此房企現金流方面壓力相對小。
1-2月是地產傳統淡季,全國銷售和開工面積佔全年比重都不超過10%。天風證券認為,一季度中3月份為傳統旺季,佔一季度銷售額接近一半,因此3月份情況或更為關鍵。但總體而言,一季度受抑制的需求,後續有望出現補償性釋放,全年影響或將較小。
作為負責任的企業公民,在疫情發生後,1月26日,正榮向正榮公益基金會捐贈1000萬元設立基金,專項用於新型肺炎疫情的抗擊及防治工作。1月30日,正榮向莆田市紅十字會捐贈200萬元,專項支持莆田市疫情防控工作。目前基金會各項目在穩步推進當中。
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