大和:上調贛鋒鋰業(1772.HK)目標價至22港元 評級“持有”
大和總研發表研究報告指,贛鋒鋰業(1772.HK)(002460.SZ)將會在中國的“十四五”規劃中成為其中一名主要受惠者,鋰價格的進一步下跌,有助其純電動汽車(EV)的銷售增長。該行維持其“持有”投資評級,上調目標價46.67%,由15港元升至22港元。
大和表示,雖然2019年鋰化合物的平均售價下降30%,但仍比2015年的平均水平高55%。加上不見鋰供應增長的放緩,該行預計鋰供應過剩將在2020年達到45%,而2021年為21%。另外,該行指中國市場的近期表現強勁,將電動汽車的銷售比例目標從20%提升至2025年的25%。
不過,大和指雖然在“十四五”規劃中電動汽車政策有利好因素,但由於鈷的供需狀況較好,該行仍較看好鈷多於鋰。該行預期,2020及2021財年鋰化合物價格分別下降23%及10%,認為較低的鋰化合物價格或限制供應擴張並緩解2021年的供應過剩狀況。

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