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高盛:零售業務推動健康增長 強調“買入”招行(3968.HK)
格隆匯 02-05 15:59

高盛發表研究報告表示,經濟學家更新GDP增長軌跡,該行採取了更為保守的立場,從而重新評估覆蓋的內地銀行業務及其資產質量。

該行從不同角度進行的三個壓力測試表明,大型/股份制/區域性銀行的最低監管要求下,可以採取的最大不良貸款率約為10%。根據該行調整後的賬面價值進行的壓力測試表明,市場對銀行資產負債表的不良貸款潛力存在折讓。

該行認為,提高監管透明度可能有助於收窄投資者期望的差距。也就是説,在90天的逾期貸款/不良貸款率低於100%的情況下,內地銀行的資產負債表比預期的要良好。另外,隱含的不良貸款低於一家銀行在一級資本最低的監管要求。這表明內地銀行業似乎比預期更有彈性,並被低估了。

該行仍然認為,中資銀行的短期淨息差(NIM)上行風險可能會支撐盈利能力增長。在2月3/4日,內地政府按照反向債券回購協議向市場注入1.7萬億元人民幣的流動性,以彌補資金缺口,並在人行指導下於公共衞生事件期間保護金融體系的情況下,繼續放寬流動性。

該行建議,對防禦性的內地銀行採取槓鈴策略(barbell strategy),即優質大型銀行,包括工行(1398.HK)、建行(0939.HK)、郵儲行(1658.HK);中小型銀行如招行(3968.HK)、平安銀行;強調“買入”招商銀行H股,由於零售業務推動了健康增長,因此成為防禦性股票。

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