《大行報告》華泰證券:石四藥(02005.HK)所產阿比多爾獲納肺炎診療指南 可成新催化劑
華泰證券發表報告表示,過去的一個月中,新型冠狀病毒(2019-nCoV)給中國製藥公司的銷售業績,尤其是對石四藥集團(02005.HK)等在抗病毒一線的製藥公司,帶來了不同程度影響。石四藥指引新冠疫情或推動公司今年首季銷售增長提速,預計收入端按年增速超20%(超出該行原預期的15%以上)。該行維持石四藥「買入」評級及目標價8.1元。
該行指,主因第一是大輸液板塊銷售額增長小幅提速;第二是莫西沙星/阿比多爾因受《2019-nCoV感染的肺炎診療指南》推薦,銷售額快速增長。考慮在原料藥開始貢獻銷收入,小水針/治療型輸液快速放量,預計石四藥2020年收入、淨利潤將分別可達55億港元及13億港元左右。鑒於今年首季業績對2020全年業績的影響程度仍不確定,該行維持2019至2021年每股盈利預測不變。
華泰指,2006年石四藥的阿比多爾作為首仿品種作為在國內上市,此次《2019-nCoV感染的肺炎診療指南》將其納入推薦診療方案,成為石四藥的新增長催化劑。該行預計該藥在2020年將至少實現5,000萬至6,000萬港元的銷售額(過去一周實現約1,000萬港元的銷售額,對比2019年1月僅為100萬港元),且由於疫情過後患者對品牌的認知度提高,後續該藥的年銷售額有望達到上億港幣。
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