植耀辉: 市况反覆未定 药股禾雀乱飞勿高追
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，周日(2月2日)。笔者一如以往在黄昏时间检视公司通告(港交所(00388.HK)披露易下午6时更新)。近来已不止一次看到内地企业暂时休业消息，但今日(5日)亦再次看到餐饮股面对冠状病毒之无奈，所指的是海底捞(06862.HK)最新有关业务发展之通告。该通告的内容指「考虑到近期疫情发展情况，为持续配合疫情防控工作……中国大陆地区(港澳台地区除外)门店停业的时间将会延长」，说穿了就是「无限期休业」。对餐饮业而言，少一日经营，收入亦会减少，所以不难想像对今年业绩会带来多大冲击；不过，过去两日见其股价并未受影响，累升更达5.5%!股价升跌有时实在难以理性分析，只是以其估值加上当前状况，不追货就是了。
濠赌股的情况亦好不了多少。笔者较早前在本栏已质疑大行对濠赌股的看法过於乐观，而最新公布之1月份赌收数据进一步印证笔者观点。不少大行现时已将2月份赌收数据大幅下调，个别估算将按年倒退达50%!另外执笔之时澳门特首贺一诚宣布，暂停赌场营运半个月，相信大行很快亦会「出手」下调目标价矣!所以要买银娱(00027.HK)之读者，不妨再等一会吧!
另外，虽然过去两日港股见有反弹，但疫情所带来之冲击仍难料，所以投资者现阶段只宜候低吸纳，不建议高追。话虽如此，有一个板块近期表现却一枝独秀，就是医药板块。其实亦不难理解，皆因每次出现大规模疫情，大家最关心的是疫情能否受控，以及是否有可行治疗之法。根据过去经验，一旦药企能成功研发新药，对股价确有点石成金之效；问题在於究竟现时是否有药物可以成功医治疗新型冠状病毒?事实上，一个药物的应用，首先要保证它的安全性及有效性，所以一定需要经过多轮临床测试，而现时暂未见有一只药物能成功「对付」(包括预防及治疗)此病毒。当然不同国家也有其针对病毒之医疗方法，不过距离真正成功，相信仍有一大段路要走。
然而，在憧憬「有药医」的情况下，个别疑以疫情相关股如中国医疗(08225.HK)、歌礼制药(01672.HK)、福森药业(01652.HK)及李氏大药厂(00950.HK)被大幅炒高，但此类股份股价之波动十分惊人，何况所涉及药种是否有效仍值得商榷。或者笔者用好友Jasper的一句话作总结。「如果真的有得『医』，那A股复市首日就不会跌7%，而是升7%」。
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