郭家耀: 外圍轉勢港股料上試27,000 內地首季手機出貨恐挫逾30%
正榮金融業務部副總裁郭家耀稱，美股周二(4日)繼續向上，市場逐步消化疫情的憂慮，加上企業業績消息向好，避險情緒降溫，三大指數均錄得升幅收市，納指更創出收市新高。美元走勢靠穩，美國十年期債息回升至1.59厘水平，油價表現則持續受壓。港股預託證券大致向好，預料大市早段跟隨外圍高開。內地股市低位反彈，人行繼續為市場提供流動性支持，監管機構鼓勵保險資金入市，刺激內地股市造好，滬綜指收市上升1.3%，滬深兩市成交額增加至9,101億元人民幣。
港股走勢向好，市場憧憬中央加大放水力度，加上外圍表現強勁，刺激指數反覆高收，成交亦有所增加。外圍走勢帶動下，指數有機會上試27,000點阻力，下方支持在26,000點水平。
另研究機構Strategy Analytics日前發表報告，表示疫情爆發將在2020年上半年打擊全球經濟。智能手機市場將受到GDP增速放緩和消費者支出下跌的不利影響，報告預測2020年全球智能手機的出貨量將較預期少2%，中國手機市場的出貨量將較預期減少5%。
報告指出，目前全球有70%的智能手機都是在中國生產，疫情將影響全球智能手機的供應鍊和製造產能。同時，由於隔離或旅行限製而導致工廠的開工延誤也將不可避免地導致暫時的勞動力供應短缺。華為、OPPO、vivo和小米(01810.HK)等中國廠商將率先面臨挑戰。
根據Strategy Analytics預計，今年上半年中國國內市場將面臨需求下滑的風險，海外市場擴張也會受到產能和旅行禁令的影響。此外，蘋果等國際品牌也會受到產能不足的困擾和中國市場需求下滑的風險。受疫情影響，中國智能手機市場的出貨量在今年第一季度會有超過30%的下滑。同時報告也強調，若疫情發展不能有效控制，對市場的負面影響將會進一步擴大。預料消息短線對手機廠及上游配件設備供應商構成壓力，宜留意事態發展，靜候低吸機會。
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