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高盛:下調友邦(1299.HK)目標價至91港元 評級“確信買入”
格隆匯 02-04 15:43
高盛發表的研究報告指,隨着政府宣佈叫停“ 自由行 ”,1月30日至2月2日的每日訪港內地客降至1.5萬人,約為相關政策公佈前的50%及2019年12月時的20%,該行認為訪港內地客在“自由行” 恢復前不會有顯著復甦,而友邦香港佔友邦新業務價值約40%,當中有六成是來自銷售予內地客。
該行認為現時仍未知武漢肺炎擴散情況,而局勢亦正進一步演變,現時該行對疫情發展及當局會採取多嚴峻手段防控未有特定看法,不過在現階段,該行已將公司2020財年新業務價值增長預測由按年增17%調整至按年跌2%,主要估計“自由行” 或會在4月重啟,而內地客銷售亦將逐步復甦,估計今年第四季新業務價值增長可轉正。
該行估計疫情將對友邦中國上半年新業務價值造成單位數百分比影響,總體而言該行對2020財年淨利預測微降5%,主要反映渠道開支提升。 另外,該行亦因應社會不穩調整了2019財年的預測,將友邦目標價由94港元降至91港元,評級“ 確信買入 ”。

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