野村:內險直接索賠損失可控 保費收入增長非大挑戰
武漢新型冠狀病毒肺炎持續,野村發研報指,認為內地保險企業的直接索賠損失屬可控。由於線下銷售減少,企業的保費收入增長或受影響,但相信並非很大挑戰。2003年SARS爆發期間,行業總保費收入增長由2002年的45%降至2033年的27%,反映疫情影響可控。不過由於經濟活動中斷,間接損失可能會為金融板塊帶來更大影響。
如果政府採取貨幣寬鬆政策,降低市場利率,10年期政府收益率亦持續低於3%,相信市場將與2016年時更為類似。在該情況之下,該行更為喜歡優質企業,而非在低業務質量下快速增長的公司。
又指,疫情將對友邦保險(1299.HK)香港及中國業務產生負面影響,香港的社會運動及疫情或會加劇香港業務的增長壓力;而中國業務將面臨與同業相同的壓力,但相信有關影響可控。
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