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花旗:料內房股持續波動 惟風險漸反映 首選融創(1918.HK)等
格隆匯 02-03 15:01
花旗發表報告指,其追蹤的34家上市房企受農曆年長假及新型肺炎疫情影響,1月份銷售額按年下跌了8%,符合預期,相信即使行業改以線上銷售,2月份銷情也將持續疲弱。該行指出,首季本是售樓淡季,去年首季市場銷售額只佔全年19%,加上內地買樓需求目前是受疫情壓抑而非消散,相信市場需求將累積至第二季。
該行預測,今年第一及第二季銷售將按年下跌20%及10%,意味內房下半年要急起直追,才可確保全年有7%增長。以去年銷售額計,前十五大內房來自湖北省及武漢的佔比平均為4.9%及3%,相信今年省內銷情將復甦得較慢。
受疫情影響,有部份發展商向租户提供免租優惠。該行表示,房企普遍提供6-67天免租期,寬減50%-100%租金或管理費,相信拖累全年收入少賺約0.6%。花旗認為,過去兩個星期板塊累積下跌15%,已部分反映疫情影響,首選融創(1918.HK) 、世茂(0813.HK) 、金茂(0817.HK) 、時代(1233.HK) 、旭輝(0884.HK) 及龍湖(0960.HK)
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