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高盛:降澳門今年賭收預測至按年跌9% 下調濠賭股目標價
格隆匯 02-03 14:42
高盛發表研報指,澳門1月份博彩收入按年下跌11%至221億澳門元,即本月20-31日的日均收入為5.93億澳門元,較1-19日的平均7.9億澳門元大幅下跌,預期新型肺炎疫情將持續蔓延3至4個月,料至年底市況才可回覆正常,因此將今年賭收預測由按年增長9%,下調至跌9%,當中貴賓廳跌10%,中場跌8%。
報告指,1月份賭場中介人的轉碼率按年下跌20%,當中上半個月跌10-15%,意味着過去2-3周交易量下降30-35%,這不只因為疫情惡化,加上農曆新年前夕亦屬普遍淡季,而情況較2003年沙士、2009年豬流感及2013年禽流感疫情爆發時都要差。
該行預料,市況將於第二季尾逐步改善,期內賭收將有30-40%影響,堆積的需求將在隨後的1-2個季度反映,貢獻約10-20%增長,預測今年全年行業EBITDA下降14%,並預期2021年澳門博彩收入將達到380億美元,較2019年逾360億美元略有增長。
高盛指,博彩股2020年企業價值倍數(EV/EBITDA)為約14.6倍,相信板塊近期約20%的調整已反映未來4至5個月疫情的影響,建議投資者買入澳博(0880.HK) 、金沙中國(1928.HK) 、銀娛(0027.HK) 、永利澳門(1128.HK) 及新濠博亞,惟全數下調目標價。

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