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受新型冠状病毒疫情影响 交行料中国首季经济增长或降至5.2%
阿思达克 02-03 10:29

交行金融研究中心发表报告,预计新型冠状病毒疫情对中国经济运行的冲击将强於SARS疫情,今年第一季度消费增速显着下降,不排除1、2月消费负增长,其中旅游、住宿、餐饮、交通运输等相关消费最受冲击。第一季度经济增速或降至5.2%至5.5%,第二季度之後可望回稳,视乎疫情持续时间。

报告建议中国应加大财政政策稳增长力度,适度提升财赤率至3%或更高,并加大定向支持力度,尽快促进消费扩张和生产恢复。对疫情影响较大的中小企及农民工等提供定向减税、发放补贴等方式进行救助,专项债规模可以适度提高至3万亿或以上,考虑发行特别国债,及明确地方政府稳增长责任,消除不作为现象。

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