郭家耀: A股长假後复市势追跌 港股料考验26,000支持
正荣金融业务部副总裁郭家耀称,美股上周五(1月31日)急泻,市场忧虑新型肺炎疫情影响环球经济表现,资金流入避险工具,风险资产遭到抛售,三大指数均录得显着跌幅收市。美元表现偏软,美国十年期债息回落至1.5厘水平,油价显着下滑,金价则受惠避险需求支持而造好。港股预托证券大致向下,预料大市早段跟随外围低开。
内地股市假後复市,预料将出现追跌情况,市场继续关注疫情消息,短期将持续为股市带来压力。港股反弹乏力,肺炎疫情未有受控迹象,外围调整亦相当显着,预料将拖累港股进一步下试低位,考验26,000点支持,上方阻力在26,800点水平。
另调查机构Canalys发表的报告指,去年第四季中国智能手机出货量按年下跌15%至8,530万台,属连续第十一个季度下跌。去年全年内地智能手机销售按年下跌7%至3.69亿台,反映智能手机於传统旺季销售显着疲弱,当中4G智能手机需求不振,厂商纷纷期待5G手机可扭转局面。报告指出,分销渠道方面已在清理4G库存,并期望新一年5G手机陆续推出将起带动作用。
按品牌划分,华为去年第四季市占率为39%,排名居首,而Oppo及Vivo则紧随其後,但两个品牌出货量分别下跌25%及29%,苹果市占率排第四位,小米(01810.HK)则排名第五。报告指华为於去年第四季出货量为3,300万台,认为第二、三季库存增加,为品牌第四季表现带来负面影响。虽然公司在5G智能手机出货量上市占率高,但厂商需助渠道夥伴消除4G手机的库存压力,才能安排5G手机大量推出市面。
苹果去年第四季扭转跌势,市占率回升至11.8%,是八个季度以来最好,而iPhone出货量跌幅亦收窄至12%,达1,000万台,主要因为iPhone 11定价具竞争力,该款手机亦是内地最好卖的4G手机,反映苹果配合其硬件及服务生态系统的强势,仍有能力推售新产品,相信到5G iPhone真正来临时客户升级的比率亦会更高。手机厂商今年出货量应有明显改善,有利配件厂的订单表现,後市仍值得看好。
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